Wind power industry is expected to bottom out

The overall installed capacity lower

The latest data show that in 2017 China's wind power market, the overall installed capacity fell, with a total installed capacity of 18 GW. Due to the suspension of construction of projects in the "Three North" abandonment area, the installed capacity of newly-added wind power on land dropped to 16.8 GW. However, it is gratifying that the installed capacity of offshore wind power has been significantly accelerated, and the installed capacity of offshore wind power in 2017 will reach 1.2 GW.

Comparing the data released in January last year, it was found that the new installed capacity of wind power in China in 2016 was 22.8 GW, down 21% from 2015. This means that wind power installed capacity has been going "downhill" for two consecutive years.

In addition to the cyclical shrinkage caused by the rush to lock in high electricity prices, the industry believes that the shift of wind power projects to the central and eastern and southern regions temporarily caused a drop in installed capacity. The terrain is complex in these areas and the project construction period is long, resulting in the quantity of orders in hand can not be converted to hoisting capacity and grid-connected capacity in time.

Or enter bottoming rebound phase

For two consecutive years of decline in installed capacity, the industry forecast that the current installed capacity of wind power industry has bottomed out, by 2018 wind power installed capacity will show bottoming out.

Wind power industry demand bottomed out, and the recovery trend is clear. The above conclusions are mainly based on several reasons: firstly, the continuous improvement trend of the wind power cut-off is clear; the "red six provinces" that restrict the investment in wind power are expected to be gradually lifted and thus contribute to a considerable increase in installed capacity; secondly, As a result, the profitability of operators has been enhanced and their willingness to invest has been stimulated, thereby further attracting private capital to participate in wind power investment. In addition, wind power itself has been adjusted to meet the requirements of environmental inspection and ecological protection, and the area with stringent ecological control is expected to see rapid growth increase. The current approved wind power scale up to 100 GW or more, the market growth prospects can be expected.

In 2018, the third year in which the construction of wind power will be transferred to the central-east and southern regions, the installed capacity in the eastern and eastern regions will be rationalized, the pace of release or normalization will be released, and the industry will also be able to bottom out.

Based on the forecast of sound development of offshore wind power and decentralized wind power, it is estimated that the new installed capacity of the wind power industry in 2018-2020 is expected to reach 28 GW, 35 GW and 44 GW respectively, an increase of 56%, 26% and 25% respectively %.

Industrial concentration continued to improve

According to the latest data released, the top five OEMs have a total installed capacity of 11.5GW, accounting for 64% of the total installed capacity of wind power in China in 2017, further improving market concentration.

Although slightly controversial for the ranking data, but the data reflect the general trend of the industry recognized.