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Despite the baptism of the “531” New Deal, the photovoltaic industry has added 34.54 GW of installed capacity in the first three quarters, far exceeding industry expectations. I still remember that at the beginning of the "531" New Deal, most industry insiders predicted a new installed capacity of 30-35GW for the whole year of 2018. However, only the installed capacity in the first three quarters has reached 34.54GW, and the installed capacity has exceeded expectations.
New installed cloud
Since 2018, the photovoltaic market has been ups and downs. First, the first quarter of the country's new PV installed capacity of 9.65GW, an increase of 22%; of which distributed photovoltaic 7.69GW, an increase of 216%, igniting the photovoltaic market passion. It can be said that before the release of the "531" New Deal, the photovoltaic market has been in a relatively prosperous state.
After the release of the "531" New Deal, the photovoltaic market was shrouded in gloom. Under the plunging of product prices, industry players are desperate.
However, it is worth noting that despite the impact of the “531” New Deal, the PV New Deal installed data has repeatedly exceeded industry expectations.
The data shows that in the first half of 2018, photovoltaic power generation installed 24.30GW, of which 12.06 GW of photovoltaic power plants, a year-on-year decrease of 30%; distributed photovoltaic power generation added 122,400 kilowatts, an increase of 72%.
In other words, the new installed capacity in the second quarter reached 14.65GW, an increase of 153% compared to the first quarter.
Under the circumstance of the industry after the release of the “531” New Deal, the strong growth in installed capacity in the second quarter was amazing. However, when the "531" was released, it was only one month in the first half of the year, so the industry was in a period of rapid growth for most of the time, and the existence of the "630" grabbing project and the distributed project under construction before the "531" was released. Enriched the installed capacity in the first half of the year. So after careful analysis, the growth in the first half of the year is also reasonable.
Judgingly, in the third quarter when “531” was fully effective, new projects could not be subsidized, and domestic PV installations should be close to freezing point. However, the facts exceeded expectations again. According to the data, the installed capacity of 10.24GW remained in the third quarter, even more than the hot first quarter, so that the installed capacity in the first three quarters is close to the industry's installed forecast for the whole year.
As a result, the new installed capacity for the whole year of 2018 may exceed 40GW, which is still a huge number. The industry is complaining that the installed capacity is exceeding expectations, and the contradiction is quite puzzled.
According to most industry sources, current unsubsidized projects are still unable to generate revenue, and the industry still needs subsidies. If so, where did the new 10.24GW installed capacity come from in the third quarter? Are they unsubsidized projects? If so, does that mean that the industry can go online at a higher price in advance?
Or will you get online at an affordable price in advance?
In fact, the 10.24 GW installed capacity in the third quarter cannot be all unsubsidized. Although the new PV projects after the “531” are no longer eligible for subsidies, there are still some special projects that are not affected by the “531” New Deal. These projects are mainly photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects and photovoltaic front runners projects.
Therefore, most of the new installed capacity in the third quarter is expected to be poverty alleviation projects and photovoltaic front-runner projects, and the unsubsidized projects have not yet formed a large-scale grid-connected installation.
As for the cheap online time of photovoltaics, it has always been a concern in the industry. According to the "Notice on Accelerating the Work on Speeding up the Work of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Levels on the Internet (Draft for Comment) issued by the National Energy Administration, the opening notice of the "Notice" has determined that in some areas, the PV target has reached the standard for affordable Internet access. You can even no longer rely on subsidies.
That is to say, in areas with good resources, low construction costs and good market conditions, photovoltaic power generation has basically the same conditions as clean emission levels of coal and electricity and does not require subsidies.
However, PV parity Internet access refers to photovoltaic projects nationwide, and it is not possible to use some regions as a criterion. Therefore, when photovoltaic power generation achieves a cheap Internet access, it mainly depends on those regions with insufficient resources and high costs.
At present, the "531" New Deal has effectively curbed the crazy rise in new PV installations, but the installed capacity in 2018 is still likely to reach 40GW. In general, the "531" New Deal does not seem to be "excessively used and does not leave a living path for enterprises" as some people have said. At least from the installed data, 2018 is still a major year of installation.
Therefore, the impact of the “531” New Deal on the industry is more to promote the accelerated decline of PV subsidies, to promote the industry to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and accelerate the industry to achieve parity online.
After the release of the New Deal, the sharp decline in the price of photovoltaic products is forcing enterprise technology iterations, and the industry is transforming into high efficiency. On the other hand, relevant departments are also working to reduce non-technical costs in various regions to promote unsubsidized projects. Construction. If the industry develops well in 2019, it is possible to achieve parity online in advance.
