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The more important significance of hydrogen energy is to open up the channels of renewable energy and traditional fossil energy on the energy side, and increase the diversification of energy sources.
A few days ago, at a summit forum, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Market Research Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, analyzed the current market trend on the power line for the new energy vehicle market. However, unlike the previous good news about hydrogen energy, Cui Dongshu believes that pure electric is always the core line, and hydrogen energy has no opportunity in the field of passenger cars.
Like Cui Dongshu, Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Deis, Germany's "Auto Weekly" has reported that Deis said that hydrogen energy vehicles "no future."
At present, many auto companies in China's auto industry have been swaying on the two lines of hydrogen energy and electrification. Even on the technical route of hydrogen energy, car companies and experts also have completely different views.
So is there any chance for hydrogen energy? Or is it the future of electrification and hydrogen energy?
Since then, Toyota has also conducted empirical tests in China to explore the possibility of introducing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Toyota believes that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have obvious advantages over PHEV and EV models and may be the next development direction of new energy vehicles. Today, Toyota is actively promoting the industrial development and application of technologies such as fuel cell stacks and high-pressure hydrogen storage tanks mounted on MIRAI.
Thanks to the development of hydrogen fuel cell technology, since the launch of MIRAI in 2014, Toyota ’s global sales have reached 10,000 by virtue of commodity features such as “fast charge for 3 minutes, battery life of 600 km”, and “drainage without carbon emissions” Around.
Thanks to advances in fuel cell technology, the cost of fuel cell stacks that mix hydrogen and oxygen to produce electricity has been halved. This makes Toyota's global production of fuel cell vehicles from 3,000 in 2018, expected to grow to 30,000 in 2020, and is expected to increase production capacity to 200,000 in 2025.
Just because Toyota is inclined to "hydrogen", according to the Wall Street Journal, the Tokyo government plans to spend 40 billion yen (about 2.1 billion yuan) to bring Japan into a new "hydrogen society" and increase hydrogen as Energy usage.
The growth of Hyundai ’s fuel cell vehicle sales was mainly due to increased domestic demand. In the first ten months of this year, its sales in South Korea increased by 576% year-on-year; Toyota, which ranked second, grew by 16.8%, and Honda, which fell 54% year-on-year, ranked third. Data show that from January to October this year, South Korea's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles sold 3,207 units, ranking first in the world; followed by the United States, Japan and the European Union.
Hyundai Motor even set an ambitious goal for itself. It plans to invest 61.1 trillion won (approximately 51.81 billion U.S. dollars) in the next 6 years for research and development and future technology. About a third of the funds will be Used in electric vehicles (including fuel cell vehicles) and autonomous vehicles. In addition, by 2025, 670,000 electric vehicles will be sold annually, including 560,000 battery-powered electric vehicles and 110,000 fuel cell electric vehicles.
The reason why hydrogen energy is regarded by Japan and South Korea as the ultimate solution for alternative energy sources is not only that it can be used in fuel cell vehicles, but also that it can be used to build a low-carbon society for hydrogen energy.
First, hydrogen energy is almost inexhaustible. It is one of the largest energy sources on the planet. The development and utilization of hydrogen energy is considered to be a pioneering initiative that will change the rules of the global game. Second, when hydrogen and oxygen contact each other in fuel cells, It can produce environmentally-friendly energy like water, which is the cleanest energy. Third, the surplus electricity obtained through renewable energy can be converted into hydrogen and stored and transported to various places, wherever and whenever needed . In this sense, hydrogen is an energy source that can coexist with electricity.
In addition to the direct use of industrial by-product hydrogen, it can also be produced through renewable energy, sewage sludge, livestock manure, and many other methods. The high-pressure hydrogen storage tank allows hydrogen to be stored in large quantities for a long period of time and is also very easy to transport. In Japan, relevant empirical experiments are being carried out, for example, using renewable energy and sewage sludge to produce hydrogen, and popularizing infrastructure such as hydrogenation stations.
The rapid development of China's economy and productivity over the past 30 years has also brought increasingly serious environmental and ecological problems. Transforming previous rough development methods, especially promoting the transformation of the energy structure has become a top priority. In order to realize the sustainable development of the society, the Chinese government has clearly set the goal of increasing the proportion of renewable energy to 20% by 2035 and 60% by 2050. Therefore, the use of hydrogen energy can solve the current problems in China to a certain extent in the energy structure.
In recent years, the popularity of the hydrogen energy automobile industry has been increasing year by year in China. Public statistics show that more than 20 provinces have issued development plans for hydrogen and hydrogen fueled vehicles. According to the Blue Paper on the Development of China's Hydrogen Industry Infrastructure (2016), it is expected that by 2020, China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach 10,000; by 2030, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach 2 million, accounting for the national automobile The proportion of total output is about 5%, and the output value of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is expected to exceed the trillion yuan mark.
In June 2019, the content of the "White Paper on China's Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry" showed that hydrogen energy will become an important part of China's future energy system. It is estimated that by 2050, hydrogen energy will account for approximately 100% of China's energy system. At 10%, the demand for hydrogen is close to 60 million tons, and the annual economic output value exceeds 10 trillion yuan.
It can be seen that the hydrogen energy industry is receiving more and more attention. However, the development of hydrogen energy in China is obviously bigger than the market prospect.
Industry insiders believe that “because China ’s fuel cell vehicle core technologies and component technologies have not yet been broken, infrastructure is insufficient, standards and regulations are lacking, and hydrogen as an energy management system has not been established, etc. . "
The more important significance of hydrogen energy is to open up the channels of renewable energy and traditional fossil energy on the energy side, and increase the diversification of energy sources.
A few days ago, at a summit forum, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Market Research Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, analyzed the current market trend on the power line for the new energy vehicle market. However, unlike the previous good news about hydrogen energy, Cui Dongshu believes that pure electric is always the core line, and hydrogen energy has no opportunity in the field of passenger cars.
Like Cui Dongshu, Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Deis, Germany's "Auto Weekly" has reported that Deis said that hydrogen energy vehicles "no future."
According to media statistics reports, since the Ministry of Science and Technology led the four ministries and commissions to officially launch the "ten thousand cities in ten cities" project in 2009, the state has allocated 93.4 billion yuan in subsidies to promote the development of new energy vehicles based on pure electric vehicles. Driven by the strong subsidy of 100 billion yuan, as of June 2019, China's new energy vehicle ownership reached only 3.44 million, accounting for 1.37% of the total number of vehicles.
In the development process, a series of complex policy guidance such as fraudulent compensation, liquidation, and constant adjustment of subsidy policies were initially established before the basic development trajectory of the pure electric market was initially established. If hydrogen energy is to be developed in a “large scale”, the future market-oriented transformation will inevitably experience another difficult period of pain.
From the current point of view, the future of hydrogen energy and fuel cells is expected to replicate the "rising path" of lithium power, especially as the central and local governments will successively introduce related policies, and the joint support of national and local subsidies will definitely promote production and sales The outbreak will further clarify the industry trend.
However, it should be clear that, whether it is a fuel cell vehicle or a pure electric vehicle technology, the two have different characteristics and have their own suitable application scenarios. The future should be complementary and coexistent, not a substitute relationship. As the industry said, "To send a clear signal to businesses and society, that is, both technical routes are national strategies, and the two are complementary rather than alternative relationships." And more importantly, hydrogen energy in energy To open up channels for renewable energy and traditional fossil energy, increase the diversification of energy sources.
