RCCN WeChat QrCode
Mobile WebSite
During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's renewable energy development has made remarkable achievements. Renewable energy generation in 2019 was 1.7 times that of 2015. In terms of consumption and utilization, the target of 95% utilization was achieved one year in advance. However, there are still many problems in the development of renewable energy in my country, such as increasing difficulty in planning implementation, increasing funding gaps for subsidies, and power rationing in some areas.
From a global perspective, the general trend is that countries have successively formulated renewable energy-led energy reform strategies, taking renewable energy as the main direction of energy transition. Photovoltaic and wind power are the main forces of energy transition; conventional hydropower in the world has entered an era of low-to-medium-speed development , The focus is on Asia (outside China), Latin America and Africa; pumped storage power plants are still the preferred choice for countries around the world to provide grid auxiliary services. The International Hydropower Association predicts that the world's total installed capacity of pumped storage power plants will reach 240 million kilowatts in 2030. At the same time, the power system is also undergoing changes. In order to adapt to the development of a high proportion of renewable energy, all countries are constructing flexible power systems centered on renewable energy.
From a domestic perspective, on the whole, renewable energy is expected to become the main body of energy consumption increase in the next five years; in 2035, renewable energy will basically meet the increase in energy consumption; in 2050, renewable energy will become the main body of total energy consumption. At the same time, among a variety of renewable energy sources, the traditional functional positioning of hydropower is changing. The functional positioning of hydropower will gradually shift from power supply to clean power and capacity.
In terms of photovoltaics, it will become the largest power source with the lowest on-grid price in most regions in my country in the future. It is estimated that by 2035, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics is expected to surpass that of coal-fired power and become the largest power source in my country. In terms of development model, photovoltaics will further integrate with industries such as construction, agriculture, transportation, rural areas, and ecological environment.
In terms of biomass, agricultural and forestry biomass power generation slowed down. The waste incineration power generation with both environmental protection and power generation attributes continues to develop steadily, and the scale of bio-natural gas will grow rapidly.
From the perspective of development orientation, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" have improved three simultaneous developments, namely, simultaneous development of centralized and distributed, simultaneous development of land and ocean, and simultaneous use of on-site use and cross-provincial delivery. On the basis of these three simultaneous developments, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, there will also be simultaneous development of single-variety development and multi-variety collaboration, and simultaneous development of single-scene and comprehensive scenarios.
From the perspective of consumption, the national unified requirement to achieve a consumption ratio of 95% is not conducive to China's renewable energy development. Reasonable power curtailment is conducive to reducing the total cost of the system and increasing the scale of new energy development and utilization. For this reason, it is recommended that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the national overall average level should reach over 95%, and measures should be adapted to local conditions. For example, it is higher than 92% in Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Tibet and other places; higher than 95% in other areas of the "Three Norths"; higher than 97% in central-eastern and southern regions.
As the cost of wind power continues to fall, the "Three Norths" onshore and the eastern coastal areas are the focus of future wind power development. Onshore wind power in the south of the Middle East focuses on solving resource development issues such as land use, ecological and environmental protection, and promotes low wind speed technology progress. The "Three North" onshore wind power is mainly to improve the flexibility of the local power system, ensure the proportion of new energy power in the transmission channel, and explore the cross-provincial transmission method based on new energy power; the east offshore wind power is mainly developed Large-capacity wind turbines that adapt to the offshore environment, improve the level of engineering construction, and promote the reduction of offshore wind power costs through centralized contiguous development.
