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The “full complaints” that the photovoltaic industry has accumulated due to the sudden increase in the price of photovoltaic glass are being vented due to an explanatory document about “capacity replacement can be used to build photovoltaic glass projects”.
According to the "Response to Recommendation No. 6572 of the Third Session of the 13th National People's Congress" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on October 26, photovoltaic glass is still recognized as a key industry with excess capacity, and new capacity expansion projects are strictly prohibited. It is necessary to implement capacity replacement, and carry out reduction or equivalent replacement according to different project conditions. That is, only when the old glass production capacity is eliminated, the new production capacity can be launched.
In this regard, the photovoltaic industry believes that the “imbalance between supply and demand of photovoltaic glass” caused by insufficient production capacity is the core reason for the sharp increase in photovoltaic glass prices.
It's not just the steep price increase. A few days ago, Shi Limin, executive deputy secretary-general of the New Energy Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, even bluntly said in an interview with the media: "Recently, some photovoltaic module manufacturers have stopped production because they cannot buy photovoltaic glass."
Compared with the multiple links of the photovoltaic industry chain, especially the dilemma of modules "subject to glass", the latest data disclosed by PVinfoLink shows that 3.2mm coated glass has risen from 23 yuan at the beginning of the year to the current 35 to 40 yuan. The cumulative price increase has increased. Reached 52% to 74%.
At the same time, Flat and Xinyi Solar, which are known by the industry as the "duopoly" of the photovoltaic glass industry, also ushered in a surge in their share prices. Take Flat as an example. The company’s stock price has risen from around RMB 20 per share in early September to a recent high (October 14) of RMB 41.8 per share, achieving a growth of more than 100%, with less than One month.
High hopes for photovoltaic development
Not only photovoltaic glass, the A-share photovoltaic sector has been in an upward channel for some time. The reporter learned in the interview that this mainly depends on two reasons.
First of all, the rapid decline in the cost of photovoltaic power generation over the years is beyond people's imagination. All walks of life generally believe that achieving low prices in some areas (the cost of power generation is lower than that of thermal power) is expected in the future.
On this basis, my country has proposed that carbon dioxide emissions will reach the peak before 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 (that is, to offset its own carbon dioxide emissions through energy saving and emission reduction, and achieve "zero emissions" of carbon dioxide). Driven by this goal, as one of the renewable energy forms with the best development momentum and one of my country’s most internationally competitive industries, China’s photovoltaics will most likely be entrusted with important tasks, which are embodied in the “ten The Fourth Five-Year Plan may exceed expectations, so that some experts predict that the average annual new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic during the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan is about 60GW-70GW. This figure is significantly higher than the largest new photovoltaic installed capacity in history created by my country in 2017-53.06GW.
However, because photovoltaic power generation is in the process of parity with rapidly falling costs, the demand side of photovoltaic power generation is extremely sensitive to price fluctuations in all links of the industrial chain. This time, "the price of photovoltaic glass has risen sharply, and the fierce reaction caused by all parties" is one of the signs of the "price sensitivity" of photovoltaic power generation.
"Subject to glass" is blamed on the imbalance of supply and demand
According to the data collected by the reporter from various interviews, the price of photovoltaic modules has fallen from the level of 27 yuan/watt in 2008 to about 1.7 yuan/watt-1.8 yuan/watt. Compared with the 94% drop in the price of photovoltaic modules, the cost of photovoltaic glass has increased from 1% at the lowest time to 18% (double glass modules).
A chief analyst in the power equipment and new energy industry of a brokerage firm confirmed to reporters, “On the one hand, the price increase of photovoltaic glass, which accounted for about 12% of module costs before (in July), has rapidly increased to the current level of 18%. Very large; on the other hand, the shortage of photovoltaic glass is difficult to resolve in the short term."
"This has indeed brought a lot of pressure to the entire industry." The above-mentioned analyst believes that "the domestic 25.96GW bidding project that will be included in the subsidy in 2020 is expected to accelerate the construction of the project in the fourth quarter, which leads to the booming demand for downstream installations and drives the components Waiting for a surge in demand. But now, even if module manufacturers are willing to “loss” in the face of orders that have locked prices, photovoltaic glass is still “hard to find”. And the predicament of module manufacturers will also affect downstream power station investment and other links."
Of course, the “high proportion of photovoltaic glass costs” cannot be entirely attributed to the rise in photovoltaic glass prices. In recent years, a type of double-sided module has quickly become popular in the industry due to its power generation gain (reducing the cost of electricity and increasing the rate of return on power plant investment). With the continuous increase in the industry penetration rate of double-sided modules (mainly due to the doubling of glass demand for some of the double-sided double-glass modules), the demand for photovoltaic glass for photovoltaic modules is also increasing.
Wang Shujuan, founder of Zhihui Photovoltaic, introduced to reporters that since this year, the application ratio of double-sided double-glass modules has increased to nearly 40%.
However, the selling of double-sided double-glass modules is not the direct driving force of the sharp increase in the price of photovoltaic glass. The industry still generally believes that the "imbalance of supply and demand of photovoltaic glass" is the core reason for the sharp increase in the price of photovoltaic glass.
To "look at the issue of photovoltaic production capacity structure from a development perspective"
According to the reporter's understanding, photovoltaic glass is called ultra-white glass because it mainly uses ultra-white embossing process. Since ultra-white glass must meet the special application requirements of photovoltaic modules (light transmission, weather resistance, etc.), it is significantly better than ordinary flat glass in terms of visible light transmittance, high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, and impact resistance.
A person in the photovoltaic industry who did not want to be named told the reporter, "The difficulty in the production process of photovoltaic glass is mainly reflected in the performance of the kiln, calender, annealing furnace and other equipment and the process control in the production process. This is the industry’s best product. The main reason for the difference in rate."
"Photovoltaic glass began to gradually realize domestic substitution in 2013." The person said, "The yield rate is currently one of the core barriers formed by major manufacturers through process accumulation. The yield rate directly affects the gross profit margin. For example, the production costs of major manufacturers It is about 20% to 30% lower than that of second- and third-tier companies, and its gross profit margin is 15%-20% higher than that of other competitors. When the leading gross profit margin drops below 30%, many small manufacturers in the industry cannot achieve profitability."
In addition to the "yield rate", new and expansion of glass production capacity is also a natural barrier. The above-mentioned chief analyst of a brokerage firm, who cannot be named, told reporters, “It usually takes two to two and a half years from the planned production line construction to stable production after the kiln is ignited, and continuous production is required after the ignition, and the production suspension period is long. . It can be said that the glass supply is rigid."
"Because of the yield rate, few glass manufacturers have the strength to transform to produce photovoltaic glass." In the eyes of the above-mentioned photovoltaic industry, "In addition, the glass industry has a long production expansion cycle and high production shutdown costs. In particular, photovoltaic glass is strictly forbidden to expand. Production capacity projects (capacity replacement must be implemented) have suppressed the enthusiasm of other capitals to get involved in photovoltaic glass production, which has also broken the balance of supply and demand and gave birth to'oligarchs'."
In fact, according to the reporter's understanding, Flat, Xinyi Solar, Almaden, CSG A, etc. have all entered the photovoltaic glass track, and have announced expansion plans.
But even so, the industry generally believes that the "ultra-white glass capacity cannot meet demand and restrict the output of photovoltaic modules" is still difficult to reverse in the short term.
On the one hand, in January this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Operational Answers to the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Cement Glass Industry", which listed flat glass (including photovoltaic glass, automotive glass and other industrial glass original sheets) projects into the categories that require capacity replacement.
On the other hand, according to a research report issued by Guosheng Securities Research Institute, from 2020 to 2021, photovoltaic glass will maintain a tight supply and demand pattern. Starting from 2022, as Xinyi Solar and Flat's production capacity are successively launched, the tight supply situation is expected to ease.
Lu Fang, Secretary-General of the Photovoltaic Special Committee of China Green Supply Chain Alliance, told reporters: "We must look at the structure of photovoltaic production capacity from a development perspective. The new installed capacity in the whole year of 2025 may exceed 300GW, and the global module production capacity may exceed 400GW by the end of 2025. Supply chain security is particularly important. Raw and auxiliary materials and equipment supply chains must be coordinated, and there must be no shortcomings. Ultra-white glass used for photovoltaics should be distinguished from ordinary building materials glass and used as auxiliary materials for the photovoltaic industry to encourage development."
