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On Monday, the main Shanghai copper contract 2101 fell back. The highest intraday was 57,850 yuan/ton, the lowest was 56960 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 57,030 yuan/ton, which was 0.73% lower than the closing price of the previous trading day. In the external market, LME copper fell from its high level. At 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month LME copper price was $7714/ton, down 0.57% daily.
Market focus: (1) The number of new non-agricultural employment in the United States in November was 245,000, with an expected value of 469,000, with the previous value of 610,000. The unemployment rate fell to 6.7%, with an expected value of 6.8% and a previous value of 6.9%. (2) In November, imports of unwrought copper and copper materials were 561,311 tons, a decrease of 9.2% month-on-month and an increase of 16.2% year-on-year. (3) According to data from Mysteel.com, China’s spot stock of electrolytic copper on December 4 was 175,400 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from November 30; the stock of electrolytic copper in China’s bonded areas was 436,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday, compared with last week. 5. A reduction of 5,000 tons.Spot analysis: On December 7, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 57250-57470 yuan/ton, with an average price of 57360 yuan/ton, and a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton. Holders continue to hold prices, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, downstream rigid demand is dominated, and transactions are light.
Warehouse receipt inventory: On Monday, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 27,920 tons, an increase of 204 tons per day; on December 4, LME copper inventory was 149,675 tons, an increase of 350 tons per day. As of the week of December 4, Shanghai copper stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported 97,783 tons, a weekly increase of 4,871 tons.
Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Copper's main 2101 contract were 72,641 hands, with a daily decrease of 2,400 hands, a short position of 79,898 hands, a daily decrease of 3592 hands, a headroom position of 7,257 hands, a daily decrease of 1192 hands, both long and short positions, and a decrease in headroom.
Market research and judgment: On December 7th, Shanghai Copper 2101 rose and fell. The non-agricultural data in the United States in November was significantly lower than expected, and the new stimulus plan was expected to heat up, and the U.S. dollar index fell. At the same time, the upstream domestic copper ore inventory rebounded significantly, while the copper processing fee TC remained low, making refinery production costs high ; And the arbitrage window is closed, making the inflow of overseas sources of goods decline, forming support for copper prices. However, the domestic smelting output is showing an upward trend, coupled with the recent increase in copper prices, the fear of high downstream purchases has increased, the inventory has rebounded slightly, and copper prices are facing resistance. Technically, the Shanghai Copper 2101 contract has shrunk and lightened its position. There is resistance above 58,000, and short-term shock adjustment is expected.
