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Yesterday, the main Shanghai aluminum futures AL2101 fell 390 yuan in daily trading, or 2.34%, opening at 16,655 yuan, the highest intraday was 16,760 yuan, the lowest was 16,230 yuan, and it closed at 16,280 yuan.
Macro aspect: On the 20th local time, the US and US parties finally reached a US$900 billion bailout bill, which will provide the government with funding and assistance related to the epidemic; the US vaccine was approved and began vaccination last week, and Canada and other countries will also The large-scale vaccination of the epidemic is on the agenda; last Thursday (December 17) at 3:00 am Beijing time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the latest interest rate resolution, maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the 0%-0.25% range. , Maintaining the excess reserve ratio (IOER) at 0.1% and the discount rate at 0.25%, which is in line with market expectations.
On the supply side: China's average daily production of primary aluminum in November hit a record high. According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum production increased in November compared with the same period last year, and the average daily output hit a record high. With strong demand and high aluminum prices, more smelting capacity went online. Demand side: The end demand of domestic automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong.
In terms of inventory: Yesterday, LME inventory increased by 23,325 tons to 1,390,400 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange’s inventory was eliminated last week by 1,875 tons to 217,700 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s warehouse receipts fell 2,682 tons to 67,984 tons. According to the data on December 21, the social inventory is 604,000 tons compared with the statistics on December 17. In general, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum is still at a low level, which still supports the price.
Overall, in terms of raw materials, the price of alumina remains at a low level of around 2,300 yuan. The current profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry has reached more than 3,000 yuan. From a historical perspective, the production profit is still at a high position, and the profit is high. It has lasted a long time. On the demand side, China's downstream automobile and infrastructure data performed strongly in November, showing that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and the domestic market demand performed well.
Looking at the market outlook, the supply-side production capacity has been further released as aluminum companies resume production, while the downstream start-up has remained stable. The further release of new production capacity in December will suppress the price of electrolytic aluminum to a certain extent and limit the upward mobility of aluminum prices. The low social inventory in China still supports aluminum prices to a certain extent.
