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On Tuesday, the rubber ru2105 contract opened lower and fluctuated, and futures prices closed down. The current price closed at 14155, which was -2.78% from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 446,317 hands, and the open interest was 213,784 hands, +890; the basis was -655; the ru5-9 spread was -100. The nr2103 contract futures price closed at 10530, -1.54% from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 13,522 hands, and the open interest was 29,567 hands, -266; nr03-04 spread -100.
News: 1. ANRPC: From January to November, global natural rubber production fell by 8.3% year-on-year, and Thailand fell by 11.7%. 2. There were floods in the four provinces of southern Thailand, totaling 1034 villages in 193 towns in 32 counties. 3. Emergency notices have been issued in many places in Shandong, advocating "Festivals on the spot". 4. Thailand Meteorological Administration: The cold air is coming, the temperature in some areas drops, and the southern area needs to pay attention to the impact of the storm.
Market quotations: Shanghai market reported 13,500 (-350) yuan/ton for state-owned latex in 19 years, Vietnam 3L reported 13,000 (-350) yuan/ton, and Thailand No. 3 smoke chip reported 19,700 (-150) yuan/ton. The STR20 spot in the Qingdao market was reported at 1,610 (-60) US dollars/ton, and the STR20 in Qingdao market reported 1,610 (-60) US dollars/ton in January. The field glue at the raw material market in Hat Yai, Thailand is 52 (-1) baht/kg; cup glue is 38.3 (-0.85) baht/kg. Synthetic rubber: Qilu Petrochemical styrene butadiene rubber 1502 in North China has a market price of 11,300 (+0) yuan/ton; butadiene rubber has a market price of 10,400 (+0) yuan/ton.
Warehouse receipt inventory: ru warehouse receipt 163770 tons, +0 tons; nr warehouse receipt 48304 tons, +0 tons. The main positions: ru2105 top 20 long positions 95468, -395; short positions 142227, -133; long and short positions are reduced at the same time, and the headroom is increased.
Summary: At present, the domestic production areas have entered a cut-off period. Although Thailand is still in the peak production period, the epidemic in Southeast Asia continues to spread, and the city lockdown measures continue to be tightened. In addition, the southern part of Thailand has not only been warned of heavy rainfall, but will also face frost caused by the drop in temperature, which will affect the supply of raw materials. In terms of inventory, as of the end of December, domestic dark-colored rubber stocks stopped falling slightly on a week-on-week basis, which was significantly higher than the same period last year; light-colored rubber stocks rose slightly on a week-on-week basis, and were still significantly lower than the same period last year. Considering that the shipping space is tight and the freight rate continues to rise, Thailand's production and export volume are expected to shrink, and the domestic inventory is expected to decline in the later period. On the demand side, Shandong’s environmental protection production restrictions were lifted, and tire operations rose sharply from last week. A few days ago, Shandong issued emergency notices to prevent and control the epidemic before and after the Spring Festival. The operating rate may be significantly higher than the same period in previous years, but the medium-term operating rate will continue to be constrained by tight export containers and rising ocean freight. On the disk, the ru2105 contract opened low and fluctuated. It is recommended to trade in the 13950-14350 range in the short-term; the nr2103 contract is recommended to trade in the 10350-10650 range.
