China's Purchasing Managers Index remained in the expansion range in January

——Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician from the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets China Purchasing Managers Index in January 2021

On January 31, 2021, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained.

Recently, local clusters of epidemics have occurred successively in many places in my country, and the production and operation of some enterprises have been temporarily affected. All regions and departments have actively responded, scientifically prevented and controlled, and implemented precise policies. They continued to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and the overall business climate continued to maintain In the expansion zone. In January, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 51.3%, 52.4%, and 52.8%, respectively, down 0.6, 3.3, and 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, all of which continued to remain in the glory. Above the dry line.

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index decreased slightly

In January, the manufacturing PMI fell to 51.3%, but it stayed at 51.0% and above for 7 consecutive months. Around the Spring Festival is the traditional off-season of my country's manufacturing industry. In addition, the recent local clustered epidemic has had a certain impact on the production and operation of some enterprises, and the overall expansion of the manufacturing industry has slowed down. Main features of this month:

First, the overall prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises has been stable, while that of small enterprises has rebounded. The PMIs of large and medium-sized enterprises were 52.1% and 51.4%, respectively, which were 0.6 and 1.3 percentage points lower than last month, but they were both in the economic range. Among them, the PMI of large enterprises was at 52.0% and above for eight consecutive months, which helped support the steady recovery of the manufacturing industry. It played an important role. The PMI of small companies was 49.4%. Although it rose 0.6% from the previous month, it continued to be below the critical point, and the business climate was still weak.

Second, the expansion of production and demand was weaker than last month. The production index and the new order index were 53.5% and 52.3%, respectively, down 0.7 and 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to stay in the expansion range. From the perspective of the industry, the production index and new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, computer communication electronic equipment and instrumentation are all higher than 56.0%, and the industry has grown rapidly; textiles, chemical raw materials and chemical products The two indexes of other industries are below the critical point, and production and demand have fallen. In terms of regional conditions, Hebei, Jilin, Heilongjiang and other places were significantly affected by the epidemic this month. Some companies surveyed reported that recent production, procurement, and transportation activities are facing some difficulties.

Third, the prosperity of imports and exports has fallen. In the early Christmas season, overseas demand was concentratedly released, combined with factors such as the continuous spread of the global epidemic, some companies' foreign trade orders have decreased. This month's new export order index and import index were 50.2% and 49.8%, respectively, 1.1 and 0.6 percentage points lower than last month . Although the overall import and export prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has declined, the new export order index and import index of agricultural and sideline food processing, computer communication electronic equipment, and instrumentation are all above 51.0%, reflecting that the foreign trade business of these industries is higher than last month. Has increased.

Fourth, the price index continued to run at a high level. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 67.1% and 57.2%, respectively, which were 0.9 and 1.7 percentage points lower than last month, but continued to be at a relatively high operating level. From the perspective of the industry, the two price indices of the upstream industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, petroleum processing, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing are higher than 70.0%, indicating that the raw material purchase prices and product sales prices of related industries have increased significantly .

Fifth, the holiday effect drives the recovery of the consumer goods industry. The PMI of the consumer goods industry was 52.3%, 1.8 percentage points higher than last month, and industry growth accelerated. From the perspective of production and demand, the production index and new order index of the consumer goods industry are higher than the overall manufacturing industry, at 54.1% and 55.2%, respectively, up 1.5 and 4.3 percentage points from the previous month, showing that as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, consumer consumption The market demand of the closely related consumer goods industry has been released significantly, and the production activities of enterprises are relatively active.

The survey results also showed that the employment index and supplier delivery time index both dropped significantly this month. Some companies surveyed reported that the epidemic has affected the normal arrival of employees, and some employees returned to their hometowns early, and the company’s labor gap has increased. At the same time, logistics slowed down in some areas, and some companies’ product export and raw material purchase activities were affected.

2. The non-manufacturing business activity index has declined

In January, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.4%, 3.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the recovery of non-manufacturing industry slowed down.

The boom in the service industry has declined. Affected by the locally clustered epidemic, the business activity index of the service industry was 3.7 percentage points lower than last month, at 51.1%. Although the service industry still maintained a recovery trend, the prosperity level has dropped. The business activity index of the producer service industry and the life service industry this month were 56.2% and 49.1%, respectively, which were 2.0 and 6.3 percentage points lower than the previous month. The producer service industry still maintained a relatively high level of prosperity, while the life service industry’s boom Fall back to the contraction zone. In terms of industry categories, the business activity index of telecommunications, broadcasting and television satellite transmission services, currency financial services, capital market services and other industries has been in the high level of above 60.0% for three consecutive months, and the total business volume has continued to grow rapidly. The survey results show that the business activity index of contact and agglomeration consumer industries such as accommodation, catering, culture, sports and entertainment, and resident services has dropped significantly this month, all in the contraction range. In addition, logistics has slowed in some regions recently, coupled with the reduction in business and residents' travel, the business activity index of road transportation, air transportation and other industries has dropped below the critical point, and industry activity has declined. In terms of market demand, the new order index was 48.3%, 2.9 percentage points lower than last month, and the service industry market demand has weakened. Looking at the price index, the input price index was 53.5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than last month, and the pressure on the operating costs of service industry enterprises has increased.

The high level of the construction industry fell. Affected by factors such as low temperature in winter and the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the construction industry has entered the off-season for construction. The business activity index and the new order index were 60.0% and 51.2%, respectively, which were 0.7 and 4.6 percentage points lower than the previous month. Production activities and market demand in the construction industry Expansion slowed down. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 53.6%, 9.9 percentage points lower than last month. The proportion of companies that believe that business activities will decrease in the next three months has increased.

3. The expansion of the comprehensive PMI output index slows down

In January, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.8%, 2.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have generally maintained expansion recently, but the expansion has weakened. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that make up the comprehensive PMI output index are 53.5% and 52.4%, respectively.

Article information source-National Bureau of Statistics