On July 23, the China Electricity Council issued the "Analysis and Forecast Report on the National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation in the First Half of 2021" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). The "Report" shows that in the first half of the year, my country's economy continued to recover steadily, the main macro indicators were within a reasonable range, and the economic development showed a trend of steady strengthening and steady improvement. The power industry provides a strong power guarantee for economic and social development. Power consumption is growing rapidly. The power installation structure continues the green and low-carbon development trend. Power supply and demand are generally balanced, and power supply is tight in some regions.
　　 The "Report" predicts that in the second half of the year, the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by about 6% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by 10%-11% throughout the year. By the end of 2021, the installed capacity and proportion of non-fossil energy power generation are expected to surpass that of coal power for the first time. The country's power supply and demand are generally balanced, and regions with tight power supply will increase over the previous year.
 
　　 High-tech and equipment manufacturing industries are growing rapidly in electricity consumption
　　 In the first half of the year, the country’s electricity consumption was 3.93 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and an average increase of 7.6% over the two years. The low base formed by the epidemic in the same period last year was the main reason for the rapid year-on-year growth in electricity consumption in the first half of the year. In quarterly terms, the two-year average growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in the first and second quarters was 7.0% and 8.2% respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society and the two-year average growth rate reflect that my country's economic development is showing steady strengthening and steady improvement.
　　 In the first half of the year, the manufacturing industry's electricity consumption increased by 18.4% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.8%. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of electricity consumption in high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries, other manufacturing industries, consumer goods manufacturing industries, and the four high-load energy industries were 27.3%, 22.3%, 22.2%, and 13.7%, respectively. The two-year average growth rates were respectively They are 10.4%, 9.5%, 6.2%, 6.9%.
"It can be seen that both from the year-on-year growth rate or from the two-year average growth rate, the growth rate of the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry is clearly leading. The proportion of high-tech and equipment manufacturing in the total electricity consumption of the society has increased year-on-year 0.9 percentage point, the proportion of electricity consumption in the manufacturing industry increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year." said Hao Yingjie, spokesperson and secretary general of the China Electricity Council.
　　 "The most important feature of high-tech and equipment manufacturing power consumption in the first half of the year is rapid growth." said Zhang Jingjie, director of the Environmental Protection and Climate Change Division of the Ministry of Planning and Development.
　　 Zhang Jingjie introduced that in quarterly terms, the electricity consumption of high-tech and equipment manufacturing in the first and second quarters increased by 44.0% and 15.9% year-on-year respectively; the two-year average growth rate was 10.4% and 10.3%, maintaining a steady and rapid growth trend. In terms of industries, the year-on-year growth rate of each industry in the first half of the year exceeded 15%. Among them, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (36.5%), automobile manufacturing (34.9%), general equipment manufacturing (30.9%), instrumentation manufacturing (30.3%) The year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption exceeded 30%. Computer/communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing (19.2%), automobile manufacturing (16.9%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (15.7%), general equipment manufacturing (11.8%) 10%.
　　 "From the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry's electricity consumption growth rate and proportion changes, it reflects the current manufacturing industry upgrade trend is obvious, and the new momentum is growing." Zhang Jingjie said.
 
　　 The green and low-carbon transition trend of the power industry is obvious
　　 The "Report" shows that as of the end of June, the country's full-caliber power generation installed capacity was 2.26 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The national full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity accounted for 45.4% of the total installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percentage points. The proportion of full-caliber coal-fired power installed capacity in total installed capacity fell to 48.2%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year. With the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the power industry has a clear trend of green and low-carbon transformation. In the first half of the year, the total power generation of power plants above designated size nationwide was 3.87 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year; the average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1,853 hours, an increase of 119 hours year-on-year.
　　 First, power investment increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and non-fossil energy power generation investment accounted for 90.1% of power investment. In the first half of the year, the national key surveyed companies completed a total of 362.7 billion yuan in power investment, an increase of 6.8% year-on-year, and an average increase of 17.1% in the two years. Among them, the completed investment in power supply was 189.3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, and the average two-year increase was 37.4%. Non-fossil energy power generation investment accounted for 90.1% of power investment; the completed investment in power grids was 173.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year, with a two-year average An increase of 2.7%.
　　 Second, the proportion of full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity in total installed capacity rose to 45.4%. In the first half of the year, 51.87 million kilowatts of installed power generation capacity was added nationwide, an increase of 14.92 million kilowatts year-on-year. As of the end of June, the country’s full-caliber hydropower installed capacity was 380 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%; thermal power was 1.27 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%; nuclear power was 52.16 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%; grid-connected wind power was 290 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 34.7% ; Grid-connected solar power installed capacity is 270 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. The national installed capacity of full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation was 1.02 billion kilowatts, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year, accounting for 45.4% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year; the installed capacity of full-caliber coal power generation was 1.09 billion kilowatts, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, accounting for The proportion of total installed capacity further dropped to 48.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 percentage points.
　　 Third, the power generation of full-caliber grid-connected wind power and solar power increased by 44.6% and 24.0% year-on-year, respectively, and the thermal power generation capacity of power plants above designated size increased by 15.0% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the total power generation of power plants above designated size nationwide was 3.87 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%. Affected by factors such as low rainfall, hydropower generation from power plants above designated size across the country increased by only 1.4%; affected by the rapid growth of power consumption and low-speed growth of hydropower generation, thermal power generation increased by 15.0% year-on-year; nuclear power generation increased by 13.7% year-on-year. Full-caliber grid-connected wind power and grid-connected solar power generation increased by 44.6% and 24.0% year-on-year respectively.
　　Fourth, the utilization hours of power generation equipment other than hydropower and solar power increased year-on-year, and nuclear power and wind power generation increased by 286 hours and 88 hours respectively year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1,853 hours, an increase of 119 hours year-on-year.
　　Fifth, the cross-regional output power increased by 13.0% year-on-year, and the cross-provincial output power increased by 13.7% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the country completed 295.6 billion kWh of cross-regional power transmission, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%.
　　 Sixth, market transaction electricity increased by 41.6% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, all power trading centers across the country organized and completed a total of 1702.3 billion kWh of market transaction electricity, an increase of 41.6% year-on-year.
　　 Seventh, the growth rate of raw coal production was 8.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate of coal-fired power generation during the same period. The market price of thermal coal increased rapidly in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the national raw coal output increased by 6.4% year-on-year, which was 8.7 percentage points lower than the year-on-year growth rate of full-caliber coal-fired power generation during the same period; in the first half of the year, cumulative coal imports fell by 19.7% year-on-year. The price of thermal coal in the market rose rapidly in the second quarter, reaching a historical high, making it more difficult to purchase and secure thermal coal. The fuel cost of coal-fired power companies has risen sharply. In June, the unit price of standard coal at the scene of some large power generation groups increased by 50.5% year-on-year. The loss of coal power companies has significantly expanded. In June, some power generation groups lost more than 70% of coal power companies, and the coal power sector suffered a loss as a whole.
 
　　 The proportion of non-fossil energy power generation capacity is expected to surpass that of coal power generation for the first time
　　 Since the beginning of this year, my country's economy has continued to recover steadily, and the rapid growth of foreign trade exports has driven the demand for electricity consumption to increase more than expected. Taking into account the domestic and foreign economic situation in the second half of the year, the changes in the base number before and after the previous year, the replacement of electric energy, as well as the foreign epidemic situation and the uncertainty of the external environment, the "Report" predicts that the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by about 6% year-on-year in the second half of 2021. , The electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 10%-11% throughout the year. If there is a long-term and large-scale cold wave in winter, the annual growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society may exceed 11%. By the end of 2021, the installed capacity and proportion of non-fossil energy power generation are expected to surpass that of coal power generation for the first time.
　　 The "Report" predicts that the national infrastructure construction will add about 180 million kilowatts of installed power generation capacity throughout the year, of which about 140 million kilowatts will be installed for non-fossil energy power generation. It is estimated that by the end of the year, the national installed capacity of power generation is 2.37 billion kilowatts, an increase of about 7.7% year-on-year; among them, coal power installed capacity is 1.1 billion kilowatts, hydropower is 390 million kilowatts, grid-connected wind power is 330 million kilowatts, grid-connected solar power is 310 million kilowatts, and nuclear power is 54.41 million kilowatts. , Biomass power generation is about 35 million kilowatts. The total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation reached about 1.12 billion kilowatts, accounting for 47.3% of the total installed capacity, an increase of about 2.5 percentage points from the end of 2020. The scale and proportion of non-fossil energy power generation capacity is expected to surpass that of coal power for the first time.
　　 The "Report" predicts that the overall power supply and demand across the country will be balanced in 2021, and the power supply in some areas will be tight during peak hours, and the power supply will be tight in areas and the extent will exceed the previous year. From the demand side, power consumption demand is expected to maintain rapid growth in the second half of the year. During the peak summer period, high temperature weather will increase the peak-to-valley difference of power load, which will bring greater challenges to system peak shaving. From the perspective of the supply side, the proportion of installed wind power and solar power generation continues to rise, and the lack of flexibility in the power system's period of time adjustment will be further aggravated; the supply of coal in some areas such as the southwest is tight, restricting the power generation capacity of coal-fired power plants; and the supply of natural gas in some areas The tension will affect the peak power generation capacity of the gas turbine.
　　From the perspective of the balance of supply and demand in various regions, it is expected that the power supply and demand in the central and southern regions will be tight during peak hours, and the situation in the southern region will be particularly severe; the power supply and demand in the north and east regions are basically balanced; the power supply and demand in the northeast and northwest are more than balanced.