The just-concluded Politburo meeting has new instructions for the recent concern about carbon peaking and carbon neutrality: it requires co-ordination and orderly completion of relevant work, as soon as possible the introduction of a carbon peaking action plan before 2030, and insisting on a national game of chess. Corrective exercise-style "carbon reduction".


Current status of carbon neutrality

As for how to achieve carbon neutrality, my personal feeling is that "it is very lively at the macro level, wait and see at the meso level, and very confused at the micro level".

At the macro level, whether it is academia, technology or industry, there is great enthusiasm for the dual-carbon policy, and everyone agrees that dual-carbon will become the basis of future energy policies.

At the meso level, what is the path to carbon neutrality, what specific measures will be taken to achieve this path, and how much price and cost will be required, these issues need to be further clarified.

At the micro level, when the path has not yet been clarified, the relevant parties will start to do a lot of work in a way of maximizing local interests, forming a campaign to reduce carbon and spend money to reduce carbon.

If carbon neutrality can be achieved at the micro level by doing more and more quickly, it would violate the basic principle of carbon neutrality as a social economic activity: carbon neutrality is a result goal, and it is embedded in the complex social and economic activities. It is neither the energy industry alone that can solve it, nor can it be solved by investment and sports.

The path of carbon neutrality must not only consider carbon neutrality itself, but also consider the solution to the impossible triangle problem of "green, safe, and economical" in the medium and long-term development of energy.

In essence, the goal of carbon neutrality requires that the energy industry and even various industries, in energy-related production and operation activities, transform the original management and construction thinking mode, and shift from the first curve growth to the second curve growth. This is a combined and pioneering innovation, and only by this can we achieve the carbon neutrality of the "impossible triangle".

Carbon neutralization on the supply side

I personally believe that in order for the economic operation of the whole society to achieve carbon neutrality, it is necessary to achieve "supply-side carbon neutrality" + "demand-side carbon neutrality".

Supply-side carbon neutrality, that is, the decarbonization of energy production and supply links, mainly depends on the replacement of assets on the power generation side, that is, the use of low-carbon energy forms to replace high-carbon energy, plus the energy storage on the source network side to smooth fluctuations, photovoltaic, wind power , Energy storage is a three-pronged strategy that everyone is optimistic about, and the secondary market has basically been speculated.

Carbon neutrality on the consumer side

But demand-side carbon neutrality, that is, the complete decarbonization in the energy consumption link, the underlying business logic behind it has always been vague.

At present, everyone is optimistic about the line of carbon allowances, carbon inventory, carbon verification and carbon trading.

The logic is: the carbon quota system will turn carbon emission rights into a scarce resource in the future. Through carbon inventory OR carbon verification, companies can figure out how much emission rights they have, and then the insufficient part will be made up through carbon trading.

This logic seems clear, but I personally think that it is not enough to drive carbon neutrality on the demand side. It is a method of "treating the head and feet for a headache", similar to the simple treatment of high blood pressure. First, tell you that blood pressure is healthy and unhealthy. If it exceeds a certain standard, it is high blood pressure (carbon quota OR carbon emission right), and then Give you a sphygmomanometer (carbon inventory check OR verification), tell you what your blood pressure is, and finally sell antihypertensive drugs (carbon trading).

The real big health concept is to tell you that most hypertension is a lifestyle disease. It is not a problem with an organ, but involves all aspects. So what needs to be done is: continuous blood pressure monitoring and blood pressure management, diet Light, regular work and rest, regular exercise, ensuring a good attitude, weight control, and finally scientific blood pressure treatment for the uncontrollable part of blood pressure.

Therefore, I personally believe that the greatest significance of carbon neutrality to the social economy is not only to establish a carbon transaction to speculate carbon sinks, but to build a "big and medium" energy consumption concept. High carbon is a traditional social and economic development. As a result, it is necessary to do a good job of continuous energy management and emission monitoring in the energy consumption link, and promote the overall health concept and energy consumption habits of the energy consumption side, and finally carbon trading. Only by doing so can we use carbon neutrality as the starting point to promote the healthy development of energy consumption in various industries.

Carbon neutral investment value

Many investment institutions are complaining about carbon neutrality. Apart from photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage, it seems that carbon neutrality has nothing to explore.

This is to use the logic of "antihypertensive drugs" to understand the "big health industry".

The investment value of carbon neutrality, in addition to the above three tactics, I personally believe that the future may appear in two areas:

I personally think that the backbone of the future energy system will still be based on electricity, and the proportion of electricity will further increase. The green, flexible, efficient conversion, and real-time control characteristics of electricity itself are most suitable as the skeleton of a carbon-neutral energy system.

1. The carbon neutral framework on the energy consumption side-the reconstruction of the medium and low voltage power distribution system

For the power system, carbon neutrality is not a simple low-carbon replacement of high-carbon, but in this replacement process, the entire energy system will be reconstructed. this

It is similar to an electric car with a fuel car. It still looks like a car with four wheels and a shell, but the internal changes have been completely changed. Ability + motor + electronic transmission + software control".

The nature of the power system in the past was highly mechanized. Generators, towers, transformers, and switches were all mechanical equipment, so transient analysis was inseparable from the basis of "mechanical moment of inertia".

In the future power system, especially in the "distribution + use" link, a large number of active power electronic components (photovoltaic + energy storage + charging pile), the operation logic behind it is more like amplifying electric vehicles (electric vehicles themselves are small and micro net).

Therefore, the traditional power system will be a huge reconstruction, especially in the field of more open medium and low-voltage power distribution systems, which are power electronics, flexibility, direct current, flexibility, and intelligence.

The essence of carbon neutrality on the energy consumption side is the reconstruction of the energy system on the consumption side. The new low- and medium-voltage power distribution system will be the skeleton of carbon neutrality on the energy consumption side. There are huge opportunities for innovation here.

The essence of the upgrade of the three-electric system of electric vehicles is the reconstruction of the medium and low-voltage power distribution system. If we disassemble an electric vehicle, we will find that the essence of its power system is a brand new flexible, DC, power electronics, and software control. Microgrid (or called nanogrid).

2. The implementation of carbon neutrality on the consumer side-corporate services

Integrated energy and carbon neutrality are a natural fit, but the current integrated energy projects and carbon neutrality are more about the relationship between antihypertensive drugs and hypertension.

Carbon neutrality on the energy consumption side is more like health management, requiring healthy butler services to help companies improve their energy management level and embed carbon management as a goal into energy management operations.

Therefore, the "antihypertensive drug thinking" must be transformed into a "big health thinking".

The biggest opportunity is that most companies do not have professional energy management experience. Therefore, in the future, integrated energy management will emerge as a professional service in the field of corporate services.

However, this professional service itself also needs to innovate, break through the marginal barriers of traditional enterprise outsourcing services, and combine the upgrades, digitization and intelligence of the above-mentioned physical network framework to realize enterprise-level energy intelligent services. This is a huge opportunity in the future, and it is also a demand side. Carbon neutrality is inevitable.

Carbon neutrality is not suitable, work together!