Since the beginning of this year, my country's electricity consumption in the whole society has continued to maintain rapid growth, and electricity supply and demand have become increasingly tight. Especially since the beginning of summer, both electricity consumption and electricity load have risen rapidly. On July 14, the national daily power consumption set a new historical record, reaching 27.187 billion kWh, an increase of more than 10% from the highest value in the summer of 2020. The East China and Central China regional power grids and the 11 provincial power grids including Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang load A record high. Power supply and demand are tight, and some areas have adopted orderly power consumption measures, which have had an impact on economic activities that cannot be ignored.

　　 What is the reason for the rapid growth of electricity generation and consumption in the whole society in the first half of this year and the second half of 2020? The author believes that electricity is a barometer of economic and social development, reflecting the speed and kinetic energy of development in various fields to a certain extent. The rapid growth of electricity consumption from the second half of 2020 to the present reflects the steady growth of traditional kinetic energy and the increase of new kinetic energy.

　　 In the first half of this year, the national economy maintained a stable recovery and exports exceeded expectations for high growth, which drove the sustained and rapid growth of electricity consumption in the whole society and far exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year. From January to June, electricity consumption across the country increased by 16.2% year-on-year and 15.8% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 7.6% over the same period in the two years. The average annual growth rate of electricity consumption during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period was 5.7%, and the average growth rate over the same period in the current two years was 1.9 percentage points higher than the average annual growth rate of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.

　　 The main driving force for the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the whole society is the exceeding-expected growth in exports, but there are also some characteristics in the electricity generation structure that deserve attention.

　　 First of all, pay attention to the unexpected rapid growth of the primary industry. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the primary industry was significantly lower than that of the entire society. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the primary industry was roughly the same as that of the entire society. In the first half of this year, the power consumption of the primary industry was 45.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and an average growth rate of 14.3% over the two years. The author believes that this is due to the country's in-depth promotion of the rural revitalization strategy, especially the victory of the fight against poverty, which has continued to release the electricity potential of the primary industry.

　　Secondly, in the secondary industry, the four high-energy-consuming industries are still growing at a relatively high rate. In particular, attention should be paid to the new power consumption of the secondary industry-high-tech and equipment manufacturing. In the first half of this year, the manufacturing industry's electricity consumption increased by 18.4% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.8%. The electricity consumption of the four major energy-intensive industries increased by 13.7% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 6.9%. The year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry was 27.3%, and the two-year average growth rate was 10.4%. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry was significantly higher than the average level of the manufacturing industry during the same period, reflecting the obvious upgrading trend of the current manufacturing industry and the growth of new momentum. In fact, the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry performed well in 2020. Although affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the annual added value of the high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.1% and 6.6% respectively over the previous year, and the growth rate was respectively larger than the scale. The above industries are 4.3 and 3.8 percentage points faster. In terms of product output, industrial robots, new energy vehicles, integrated circuits, and microcomputer equipment increased by 19.1%, 17.3%, 16.2%, and 12.7% respectively year-on-year.

　　 Next, attach importance to the sustainability of the growth of the tertiary industry. In the first half of this year, the tertiary industry consumed 671 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 25.8% year-on-year, and an average growth rate of 9.9% over the two years. Electricity consumption in the information transmission, software, and information technology service industries continued to grow rapidly, with an average growth rate of 26.3% in two years. Thanks to the rapid development of electric vehicles, the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry has increased by an average of 90% in two years. It can be seen from the changes in the three industries that while the traditional kinetic energy maintains resilience, the new kinetic energy consumption is very strong.

       Finally, in the power generation structure of the first half of this year, thermal power played a very critical role in supporting the bottom line, and it also mainly contributed to the substantial increase in coal consumption by 10.6% year-on-year, and an average increase of 3.4% in the same period of the two years. Among them, coal consumption in the first half of the year increased. 22.5%. In the first half of this year, the total power generation of power plants above designated size nationwide was 3.87 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year. In terms of types, the growth rate of thermal power generation has reached 15%, which is higher than the growth rate of the entire society. At the same time, the high growth rate is also the full-caliber grid-connected wind power and grid-connected solar power generation, which have increased by 44.6% and 24% year-on-year respectively. , The growth rate of nuclear power generation was 13.7%, while the growth rate of hydropower generation was only 1.4% affected by the poor incoming water. It is worth noting that due to the tight power supply, the utilization hours of thermal power equipment reached 2,186 hours in the first half of this year, an increase of 231 hours year-on-year. Among them, the utilization hours of coal-fired power equipment reached 2,257 hours, an increase of 254 hours year-on-year, reaching a high since 2015. .

　　 The electricity consumption of the whole society has grown faster than expected. Power supply is tight during peak hours. Demand-side response is not active. Demand-side basic power investment has failed to keep up with changes in the power situation. Power system is time-consuming and lacks flexible adjustment capabilities. Supply-side thermal power fuel effective capacity is insufficient

　　 The range and extent of the power supply shortage in the second half of the year may exceed that of the first half of the year

　　 Power supply and demand are tight. What are the reasons for the power cuts and how will they be interpreted in the future? In the long run, with the replacement of consumer-side electric energy and the replacement of non-fossil energy sources on the supply-side, the central position of electricity in energy will be further highlighted. There is still a lot of room for growth in my country's electricity in the future, and there is still a lot of room for growth in electricity consumption, especially residential electricity consumption. However, since the second half of 2020, my country has experienced a large-scale power supply shortage. Taking into account the peak summer and winter peaks, the range and extent of the power supply shortage in the second half of the year may exceed the first half of the year.

　　 The author believes that the reasons are multifaceted, which can be viewed from two perspectives.

　　 First is the demand side. First, the electricity consumption of the whole society is growing faster than expected, especially in the steady recovery of traditional kinetic energy, the pulling effect of new kinetic energy continues to increase. Second, with the continuous rapid growth of the tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption for several years, its proportion in the electricity consumption structure is also increasing year by year. The seasonal characteristics of the tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption are significantly greater than that of the primary industry and the second industry. The secondary industry has caused the peak power consumption in summer and winter to increase, and the seasonal peak-to-valley gap has increased, which has further aggravated the shortage of power supply during peak hours. Third, the demand side has not responded positively, and the seasonal peak-to-valley price difference is not enough.

　　 Next is the supply side. First, basic power investment has failed to keep up with changes in the power situation. Hydropower investment has shown a "V" shape, nuclear power investment has fluctuated greatly, and thermal power investment has been low for a long time, resulting in insufficient support for basic power sources. Second, the proportion of wind power and solar power installed capacity continues to rise, and the power system's time-period and inadequate flexibility adjustment capabilities have further intensified. Under the conditions of prioritizing the protection of wind power and photovoltaic power With rapid load growth, or insufficient or excessive fluctuations in the output of wind power and photovoltaic power generation (especially in winter), it will be difficult for the basic power source to provide sufficient power and power support. Third, coal, as the main fuel for thermal power generation, is affected by insufficient effective production capacity, tight supply and demand, enlarged supply gaps, and significant price increases, which affect the enthusiasm of thermal power generation and further weaken the power support capacity during peak seasons.

　　 Looking to the future, it is expected that the demand for electricity consumption will maintain a relatively rapid growth in the second half of the year, which will bring greater challenges to the system's peak shaving. The China Electricity Council predicts that comprehensively considering the domestic and foreign economic situation in the second half of the year, changes in the base number before and after the previous year, electric energy substitution and other factors, as well as foreign epidemics and uncertainties in the external environment, it is expected that the electricity consumption of the whole society in the second half of 2021 will be year-on-year An increase of about 6%, and the annual electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by 10% to 11%. If there is a long-term and large-scale cold wave in winter, the annual growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society may exceed 11%, reaching a new high in the past ten years. It is expected that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the overall power supply and demand situation across the country will be tightened, and some regions will face the risk of power shortages. Under this circumstance, thermal power, as the most critical power source, has significantly increased its equipment utilization hours. In the second half of the year, it is expected to continue the momentum of the first half of this year and maintain a high equipment utilization rate.