When the three major energy institutions of IEA, OPEC, and EIA rarely disagree, it can be seen that the current energy market environment leaves a lot of room for the market. On October 14, the IEA released the October “Monthly Report on the Oil Market” that the soaring natural gas and coal prices are forcing power generation companies and manufacturers to switch to oil. This move may further increase the global average daily oil demand. Therefore, it will 2021 The forecasts of global oil daily demand in 2010 and 2022 will increase by 170,000 barrels and 210,000 barrels, respectively. However, from September 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative effect of the continuing energy crisis may cause the average daily oil demand to be higher than under normal conditions. An increase of 500,000 barrels.

      On October 15th, Jinlianchuang crude oil analyst Xi Jiarui said that the views of the IEA monthly report are obviously inconsistent with the views of OPEC and EIA on October 13th. However, regardless of the conclusion, the current consensus is that the European energy crisis is spreading. In the global market, not only natural gas, but also industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, agricultural fertilizers, and electricity production, and even the economies of various countries will be affected.

      The continuous recovery of the global economy has caused severe shortages of natural gas, liquefied natural gas and coal supplies, triggered a sharp rise in energy supply prices, and is triggering a large-scale switch to petroleum products and the direct use of crude oil for power generation, power plants, fertilizer producers, manufacturing operations, and refineries Are affected. The record coal and natural gas prices and rotating power outages are prompting the power industry and energy-intensive industries to switch to oil in order to maintain smooth power supply and operations. On October 14, WTI and Brent closed at US$81.31 and US$84.00 per barrel, respectively, setting the highest settlement prices since October 29, 2014 and October 9, 2018. "When the price of crude oil soars to more than US$80 per barrel, and the price of natural gas also sets a new record in history, this will stimulate the consumption of other fuels, especially fuels used for power generation." Xi Jiarui believes.

　　 Xi Jiarui analyzed that due to supply chain issues and rising energy costs, it may eventually lead to a weak GDP outlook. The IEA said that price surges have swept across the entire global energy chain, and rising energy prices have also intensified inflationary pressures, coupled with power outages, which may lead to a decline in industrial activity and a slowdown in economic recovery. But what needs to be vigilant is that the decline in industrial activity and the slowdown in economic recovery will in turn restrict the energy industry, and energy and the economy are complementary.

　　 At present, the market seems to generally believe that the oil market will remain tight in the next few months and oil prices will remain firm. Citibank predicts that oil prices may reach US$90 per barrel in the winter of 2021, and inventories may fall to a record low by the end of the year, and the fourth quarter Brent crude oil price is expected to rise to US$85 per barrel, saying that inventories may fall before the end of the year. To the lowest level on record. The Royal Bank of Canada raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2022, and raised its previous target of $75 for Brent oil prices in 2022 to $84 per barrel.