Recently, the China Electricity Council issued the "Analysis and Forecast Report on the National Power Supply and Demand Situation in the Third Quarter of 2021" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). The installed capacity structure continues the green and low-carbon development trend. Affected by multiple factors such as the tight supply of electricity and coal, the overall situation of electricity supply and demand in the third quarter was tight, and orderly electricity consumption occurred in many parts of the country.


      The "Report" pointed out that, considering the domestic and international economic situation, changes in the base number before and after the previous year, electric energy substitution and other factors, combined with the uncertainty of the current external environment, it is expected that the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by 10%-11 in 2021. %, among which, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the fourth quarter increased by about 5% year-on-year.


  Electricity consumption reflects the continued upgrade trend of the manufacturing industry


      The "Report" shows that in the first three quarters, the country’s electricity consumption was 6.17 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 12.9% year-on-year. The low base in the same period last year and the recovery of the national economy this year were the main reasons for the rapid growth of electricity consumption; two The average annual growth rate was 7.4%, which was 3.0 percentage points higher than the growth rate in the same period in 2019.


  The "Report" shows that the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 4.10 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and an average increase of 6.9% in two years. In the first, second, and third quarters, the secondary industry's electricity consumption increased by 24.1%, 10.6%, and 5.1% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.4%, 7.3%, and 6.1%, respectively. The growth rate of the four high-load energy industries declined This is an important reason for the slowdown in the growth rate of the secondary industry in the third quarter. In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption in the manufacturing industry increased by 13.3% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.5%. Among them, the electricity consumption in the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry, other manufacturing industries, consumer goods manufacturing, and the four high-load energy industries increased year-on-year. The growth rates were 19.7%, 17.2%, 16.2%, and 9.5%, and the two-year average growth rates were 10.1%, 9.1%, 6.3%, and 6.4%, respectively. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry was significantly higher than the average level of the manufacturing industry during the same period, reflecting the continued upgrading of the current manufacturing industry. The state resolutely curbed the blind development of the "two highs" projects. The two-year average growth rate of the four high-load energy industries fell quarter by quarter, and the two-year average growth rates in each quarter were 7.1%, 6.7%, and 5.6%.


  Increase the proportion of new energy power generation installed capacity


  The "Report" shows that as of the end of September, the national installed capacity of full-caliber power generation was 2.29 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. In the first three quarters, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 6.07 trillion kWh, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year; the average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide was 2,880 hours, an increase of 113 hours year-on-year.


  Power investment increased by 0.8% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the national key survey enterprises completed a total of 602.8 billion yuan in power investment, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and an average increase of 12.7% in the two years.


  Full-caliber grid-connected wind power and solar power installed capacity increased by 32.8% and 24.6% year-on-year, respectively. In the first three quarters, the country’s newly installed power generation capacity was 92.4 million kilowatts, an increase of 2016 million kilowatts year-on-year. As of the end of September, the country's full-caliber thermal power installed capacity was 1.28 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%; among them, coal power was 1.10 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, accounting for 47.9% of the total installed capacity, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 percentage points. The installed hydropower capacity was 380 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. Nuclear power was 53.26 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. Wind power was 300 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%. The installed capacity of solar power was 280 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. The installed capacity of full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation was 1.05 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, accounting for 45.7% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year.


  Full-caliber grid-connected wind power and solar power generation increased by 41.6% and 24.5% respectively year-on-year. In the first three quarters, due to factors such as insufficient precipitation, the hydropower generation of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 903 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%; affected by the rapid growth of power consumption and the negative growth of hydropower generation, the thermal power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.33 Trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year; nuclear power generation was 303.1 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 12.3% year-on-year. The power generation of full-caliber wind power and grid-connected solar power was 4715 and 249.1 billion kWh, respectively, an increase of 41.6% and 24.5% year-on-year. Full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation was 2.17 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%; the proportion of full-caliber power generation was 34.7%, an increase of 0.1% year-on-year. Full-caliber coal power generation was 3.74 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; the proportion of full-caliber power generation was 59.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points.


  The "Report" shows that the utilization hours of nuclear power, thermal power and wind power generation equipment increased by 321, 280, and 91 hours respectively year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide was 2,880 hours, an increase of 113 hours year-on-year. Market transaction power increased by 20.1% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, all power trading centers across the country organized and completed a total of 2,709.18 billion kWh of market transaction electricity, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%.


      According to the "Report", in the third quarter, the overall national power supply and demand were tight, especially in September due to the tight coal supply, the rapid growth of power consumption demand, and the strengthening of "dual energy consumption control" in some areas. Three provinces have adopted orderly electricity use measures. The supply of power coal continues to be tight, coal prices continue to rise sharply, and coal power companies lose money on a large scale. In the first three quarters, the national raw coal output increased by 3.7% year-on-year, which was 2.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the first half of the year. In the first three quarters, cumulative coal imports fell by 3.6% year-on-year. The state supported increasing imported coal purchases, and the cumulative decline in coal imports gradually narrowed. The price of thermal coal continues to rise, hitting historical highs repeatedly, making it more difficult to purchase and secure thermal coal. The fuel cost of coal-fired power companies has risen sharply, and coal-fired power companies have noticeably expanded their losses. Since August, the coal-fired power sector of large power generation groups has suffered overall losses, and some coal-fired power companies have lost 100%.


  The national power supply and demand are generally tight during the peak winter period


  The state adheres to the general keynote of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, makes overall plans for the convergence of macroeconomic policies for the next two years, and maintains economic operations within a reasonable range, providing the most important support for the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society. The "Report" predicts that the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by 10%-11% in 2021. Among them, the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by about 5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.


  The “Report” predicts that the new installed capacity of power generation in infrastructure construction throughout the country will be about 180 million kilowatts, of which about 140 million kilowatts will be installed for non-fossil energy power generation. It is estimated that by the end of the year, the installed capacity of power generation nationwide is 2.37 billion kilowatts, an increase of about 7.7% year-on-year; of which, coal power installed capacity is 1.11 billion kilowatts, hydropower is 390 million kilowatts, grid-connected wind power is 330 million kilowatts, grid-connected solar power is 310 million kilowatts, and nuclear power is 54.41 million kilowatts. , Biomass power generation is about 36 million kilowatts. The total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation reached about 1.12 billion kilowatts, accounting for 47.3% of the total installed capacity, an increase of about 2.5 percentage points from the end of 2020. The scale and proportion of non-fossil energy power generation capacity is expected to exceed that of coal power generation for the first time.


  Analysis of the "Report", from the demand side, the macro economy will continue to remain within a reasonable range, and the demand for electricity consumption will maintain a medium-speed growth level. The medium-speed growth of electricity consumption in the whole society combined with cold air and other factors further amplifies the growth of electricity load. Among them, the increase of heating load is more obvious, and the proportion of electricity load of some urban residents reaches about 50%. From the perspective of the supply side, in terms of hydropower, the energy storage value of key hydropower stations has decreased year-on-year, and the winter rainfall is generally low. In terms of new energy, the proportion of installed capacity of wind power and solar power continues to rise, and the randomness, intermittentness and volatility have increased significantly, and the shortage of peak shaving resources in the operation of the power system has further aggravated. In terms of thermal power, the state has made every effort to increase coal production and supply, and promote coal mine procedures and capacity verification. The "Report" predicts that the supply and demand situation of thermal coal will be slower than the previous period, but the supply of thermal coal may still be tight in some areas. In addition, Guangdong and Jiangsu The natural gas supply may be tight in areas with more installed capacity of gas and electricity, which will restrict the output of thermal power units.


  The "Report" predicts that during the peak winter period, the overall power supply and demand across the country will be tight, and the power supply and demand situation in some areas will be tight. From the perspective of the balance of supply and demand in various regions, it is expected that the power supply and demand in the northeast and northwest regions will be basically balanced, but the proportion of new energy in the region is large, and the contradiction between peak shaving and heat supply in the power system is prominent; power supply and demand in North, East, and Central China are tight; The power supply and demand situation in the southern region is tight. Fuel supply security and winter weather conditions are the main uncertain factors affecting the power supply and demand situation this winter. If the country’s power fuel supply continues to be tight or there is a long-term and large-scale cold wave, the number of provinces with tight power supply and demand will increase, and regional power grids Some provincial power grids in Zhongjun will show varying degrees of tension.