The development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles is not only a strategic direction to ensure China's energy security, but also a strategic way to achieve the "dual carbon" goal. It is also the only way for China's automobile industry to become stronger. On December 14, China Automotive Data Co., Ltd. (China Automotive Data) released the "2021 Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Development Report" in Tianjin, which aims to promote the sustainable development and low-carbon transformation of China's automotive industry.

　　 At present, China is the world's largest new energy vehicle market. The world's leading battery manufacturers are gathered here. According to the current development trend, it is important to ensure the reliable and sustainable supply of nickel and other raw materials required for power battery production. Wu Zhixin, deputy general manager of China Automotive Technology and Research Center, said that in order to better support the energy-saving and low-carbon development and electrification transformation of China’s automotive industry, China Automotive Technology and Research Center began to compile and publish the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Development Report" in 2014. It aims to provide reference for the competent authorities to issue automobile industry policies and provide support for enterprises to formulate relevant strategies. In 2021, under the commission of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the China Automotive Technology Research Center will carry out the "Car Industry Implementation Roadmap Study for Carbon Neutrality Targets" to comprehensively analyze the low-carbon transformation of the automotive industry from multiple perspectives such as policies, standards, markets, technologies, and industries. the road.


　　 Research in the field of energy saving and new energy vehicles: three "consecutive" three "firsts"

　　 As a socially responsible resource company and a solid, reliable and trustworthy supplier of bulk commodities, BHP Billiton will continue to actively promote the construction of China's electric vehicle industry ecosystem and contribute to China's ambitious climate goals. Pan Wenyi, Chief Commercial Officer of BHP Billiton, emphasized: “The government’s precise support, expansion of charging infrastructure and changes in consumer preferences are all critical to the continued growth of electric vehicle sales.”

　　 In March 2021, BHP Billiton signed a two-year cooperation agreement with China Automotive Data, a subsidiary of China Automotive Technology Research Center Co., Ltd., to help research on the electrification prospects of China's transportation industry. Pan Wenyi believes that in accordance with the goal set by the Paris Climate Agreement, compared with the pre-industrial level, global warming will not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. Commodities such as nickel are critical to the sustainable energy transition. In the next 10 years, the demand for nickel in the battery industry will surge by more than 500%. It is estimated that the demand for nickel resources in the next 30 years will quadruple the output of the past 30 years.

　　 "At present, about 85% of BHP Billiton's nickel metal is used in the manufacture of battery materials for electric vehicles in the world, and this proportion was only about 21% in 2017, and less than 5% in previous years." Pan Wenyi said.

        According to reports, China Automotive Data has been deeply engaged in research in the field of energy saving and new energy vehicles for many years-three "continuous": Carrying out China's vehicle energy consumption calculations for 7 consecutive years, providing systematic data support for national energy consumption monitoring and industry fuel demand analysis ; Tracking the development of average fuel consumption of passenger car companies for 7 consecutive years, providing effective support for the competent authorities to implement dual-point management; publishing technical data on energy-saving and new energy products for 7 consecutive years, comprehensively scanning industry development trends, and planning for enterprises Provide a strong reference.

       China Automobile Data faces the "dual carbon" goal and new opportunities for transformation-three "firsts": for the first time the establishment of a carbon emission calculation model for China's automobile use, scientifically assesses the carbon emissions of China's automobile use, and implements the "dual carbon" for the automotive industry The goal is to provide basic support; for the first time, from the perspectives of technical routes, safety, and raw material supply, we will work with industry and leading enterprise experts to systematically evaluate the development status and new trends of power batteries; for the first time, we will propose a "dual-carbon" background to 2035. Promote the road map of vehicle electrification by scenario, region, and vehicle type.


　    Analyze the ten major viewpoints on the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles in China

       "2021 Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Development Report" focuses on the industry environment, energy consumption, product development, technology application, power battery technology, key materials, and automotive industry prospects, and provides an in-depth analysis of the development status of energy-saving and new energy vehicles in China. , Presenting ten major viewpoints.

       View 1: Under the background of implementing the “carbon neutral” goal, the global automotive electrification transformation is entering a new stage. Continuous reduction of carbon emissions is the requirement to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutral goals, and it is also China's active practice of the concept of “community with a shared future for mankind” Important measures. The transportation field is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. In developed economies such as Europe and the United States, transportation greenhouse gas emissions account for about 20-25%. China currently accounts for about 10%. Among them, automobile transportation carbon emissions account for about 20-25% of the country’s carbon emissions. 7.5% is the focus of the implementation of the "dual carbon" goal in the transportation sector. The development of new energy vehicles is the key to realizing the green transformation and low-carbon development of the automotive industry. It is an important national strategy for China. Major international automotive markets have also taken the development of zero-emission vehicles as the ultimate direction of future industrial development and is important for achieving carbon neutrality. path. Under the guidance of the fuel consumption standard system and double-point management, China has achieved remarkable results in the development of the energy-saving and new energy automobile industry. By 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will rank first in the world for 7 consecutive years, and the average fuel consumption of passenger car companies will drop compared with 2016. That’s 13%.

　　 View 2: In 2020, China's total vehicle fuel consumption will reach 227 million tons, direct CO2 emissions will be about 720 million tons, and commercial vehicles will account for more than half. Vehicle energy and carbon emissions mainly have three key influencing factors, including vehicle ownership structure, vehicle mileage and vehicle fuel consumption. Calculations show that China's total vehicle fuel consumption in 2020 will reach 227 million tons, of which the ratio of passenger car gasoline and diesel consumption to commercial vehicle gasoline and diesel consumption is 46.8:53.2. Most of the car's carbon emissions come from fossil fuels such as gasoline and diesel consumed during the operation and use of the car. In 2020, the carbon emissions during the operation and use of the car are as high as 720 million tons (for the time being, new energy vehicle electricity emissions are not considered).

　　 Viewpoint 3: The average fuel consumption of domestically-made traditional passenger cars has fallen by less than 1%, and the situation of companies meeting standards is polarized. In 2020, due to the upgrade of redemption consumption, the trend of large-scale product structure intensified, resulting in the average fuel consumption of traditional passenger cars falling by less than 1%. The average fuel consumption of enterprises meeting the standard accounted for 64.52% in 2016 to fall to 2020. 32.12%. In 2020, there will be 44 enterprises meeting the average fuel consumption standard, and independent enterprises account for 91%. The development speed of new energy passenger vehicles in joint ventures is still relatively lagging.

　　 View 4: The overall decline in fuel consumption of commercial vehicles has slowed down during the period when the limit value standard is not switched, and enterprises have insufficient power to save energy and reduce consumption, and more advanced management models need to be introduced. In 2020, the average fuel consumption of light commercial vehicles is 7.55L/100km, which is 2.57% lower than in 2019; it is better than the limit of 3.54%. The average fuel consumption of heavy commercial vehicles in 2020 is 20.64L/100km, which is 0.79% lower than in 2019. Enterprises have insufficient power to reduce energy consumption, and fuel consumption levels are basically maintained near the fuel consumption limit standards. In the future, it is necessary to introduce more advanced management models.

       Viewpoint 5: The application of supercharging and miniaturization technology is becoming saturated, and the energy-saving process of passenger cars is turning on the process of hybridization. The trend of passenger car supercharging and miniaturization is hindered. The installation rate of three-cylinder supercharged engines will decline for the first time in 2020, compared with 2019 Reduced by 3 percentage points; the industry's 48V light hybrid scale has increased step by step, and the HEV strong hybrid scale has steadily increased. In 2020, the penetration rate will rise to 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively.

　　 Viewpoint 6: The technological advancement of three power plants has boosted the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry. The power battery installation structure shows a high energy density and low "polarization" development. The share of installed capacity of 140Wh/kg and below and 160Wh/kg and above has increased significantly; the lithium iron phosphate route has "returned strongly", with the share rising from 32% to 38% ; CTP/CTC technology increases the volume utilization rate by 15-20%, increases the production efficiency by 50%, reduces the number of parts by 40%, and helps the battery system to reduce costs and increase efficiency; enterprises are actively deploying solid-state batteries, which is expected to be industrialized in 2030. The ratio of multi-motor drives has increased, the level of integration of multiple motors has been greatly improved, and flat-wire motor technology has gradually become popular; the electric control power density has continued to increase, and the 800V high-voltage platform will become the future trend of the industry.

　　 View 7: Ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries have their own advantages in terms of performance, cost, and safety. Enterprises need to plan for non-positioning based on market demand to provide users with more choices. Ternary batteries have intrinsic advantages, and the current stage of development is level and the upper limit of theoretical energy density is higher; the power performance of ternary materials, electronic conductivity, ion diffusion coefficient, theoretical true density, and tap density are higher; the crystal structure of lithium iron phosphate materials is higher Stable and longer theoretical life; because ternary materials contain rare metals such as nickel and cobalt, the price is higher, but the technology development and energy density of "low-cobalt" and "cobalt-free" batteries are further reduced to that of ternary batteries. This book provides more possibilities; the lithium iron phosphate material has a stable crystal structure and is not prone to oxygen release reaction. The intrinsic safety of the material is higher than that of the ternary material. However, the safety design requirements of the two are equal in terms of system safety.

　　 Viewpoint 8: Companies need to quantitatively evaluate battery safety levels from multiple dimensions throughout the life cycle. Acupuncture, heating and overcharging have significant differences in the triggering probability of thermal runaway. Heating is the most practical method for triggering thermal runaway. In the full life cycle of power batteries, it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate the safety level of power batteries in terms of characteristic temperature, thermal runaway temperature, thermal runaway reaction time and heat release rate.

　　View 9: Battery raw materials are highly dependent on imports, and supply security will become more important in the future; sustainable raw material supply is an important development direction for carbon emission reduction goals. Domestic battery raw materials are mainly lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc., among which lithium resources are limited by many factors such as technological level and development conditions, and the development level is relatively low. Lithium ore imports account for 80%; domestic cobalt ore resources are poor and mainly depend on Imported from Africa; while nickel resources account for only 3% of the world's total, domestic production is far below demand, and foreign dependence is high; the low-carbon and high-efficiency development of the industrial chain is of great significance to carbon emission reduction goals. The sustainable raw material supply plan is Important development direction in the future.

　　 View 10: In the context of the "dual carbon" target, China's new energy vehicle sales in 2035 under the mild scenario development target should account for 60% of China's sales of new energy vehicles in 2035, and more than 70% under the radical scenario development target. The four aspects of energy, climate change, environment, and international competition have placed on the requirements of vehicle electrification and the "dual-carbon" target requirements. Under the mild scenario development target, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2035 should account for 66%, of which rental leases Fully electrification should be basically achieved, and the proportion of private cars and company cars should reach 61%; in 2035, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles should account for 28%, and the electrification sequence should be divided into four echelons. Under the radical scenario development goal, sales of new energy passenger vehicles should account for 78% in 2035, of which 74% of private cars and company vehicles should be electrified; sales of new energy commercial vehicles should account for 33% in 2035.