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As the global automotive electrification penetration rate continues to increase, the drive motor industry will usher in a rapid expansion of the overall scale. In the process, third-party motor manufacturers with economies of scale and technological advantages will have the opportunity to rapidly expand their market share and achieve significant growth in performance.
Global drive motor market trends
According to estimates, with the rapid advancement of global automotive electrification, the new energy vehicle motor system market will expand rapidly, and the market size is expected to grow from $2.3 billion in 2015 to $31.8 billion in 2030.
The new energy vehicle motor system mainly includes two parts, the electric motor and the inverter. Although the same as most other auto parts, these two parts are facing price pressure for a long time, but due to the increase in the total amount of new energy vehicles, the industry is generally better. Big upside. We expect the average annual growth rate of the market in 2030 will be around 18%-20%.
In terms of system unit price, the overall development of the motor system to the high power direction also brings about an increase in the assembly price.
According to estimates, under the assumption of neutrality, the sales of electric vehicles will reach 20 million units in 2030, accounting for 16%-18% of the total sales of passenger cars in that year. However, if the optimistic scenario, that is, the battery price has fallen sharply and the environmental protection policy is more stringent, the growth rate of electric vehicle sales may increase sharply. We expect the total annual sales of new energy vehicles to be optimistic. It reached a level of 30 million units, accounting for 25%-27% of the car sales that year.
It is expected that the power demand of a single-motor hybrid vehicle is about 30kw, the power of a double-motor plug-in hybrid is about 50-100kw, and the power of a pure electric vehicle is about 200kw.
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Motor market situation
We expect the average annual growth rate of motor sales to reach 18% by 2030. By 2030, the overall sales volume of the industry will reach $19.5 billion, which is nearly 17 times higher than the 2015 level of $1.2 billion.
In terms of inverters, the cooling system is also important for the performance of the inverter. Nissan recently claimed to increase the output power of the motor from 80kw to 110kw in the new 2017 model of the wind, by increasing the inverter cooling system. Some are the same as the previous generation.
This reflects the importance of the inverter cooling system. Although the use of silicon carbide will increase the heat resistance and pressure resistance of the motor, its high cost, the time of its large-scale application may be difficult to come in the short term.