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How far is the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?

If 2018 is the first year of commercialization of the hydrogen fuel cell industry, 2019 will be the initial phase of commercialization.
On January 12th, at the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association (2019) forum held in Beijing, Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that the key technologies of fuel cell vehicles should be accelerated to be developed and industrialized, and demonstrations should be carried out in areas with good economic base and high local enthusiasm. Run, open up the supply chain of the industrial chain and hydrogen energy.
Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, also said: "The industry should focus on fuel cell vehicles in a timely manner. The advantages of electric-electric hybrid technology that have been formed in China are suitable for the characteristics of fuel cell technology, and also adapt to China's technology and The characteristics of industrial development.” He suggested drawing on advanced experience, summarizing the results of the pilot, and researching and revising standards for hydrogen energy, hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen storage technologies, improving testing capabilities, breaking standard detection barriers and market access barriers as soon as possible, and strengthening and improving hydrogen. It can build, store, transport and supply and sell systems.

Commercial vehicles are the main mode of commercialization of fuel cell vehicles
On January 18th, two hydrogen fuel cell buses developed by Shanghai Shenli and Shenlong Bus, a subsidiary of Yihuatong Holdings, were officially delivered, realizing the first full commercial operation of Shanghai fuel cell buses. Previously, Shanghai fuel cell buses were on the government line. The delivery achieved the first full commercial operation in Shanghai.
Yi Baolian, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, believes that hydrogen fuel cells have obvious advantages in the application of buses and heavy-duty vehicles. Hydrogen fuel cells are an ideal replacement for internal combustion engines. The fuel tank is replaced by a hydrogen cylinder, which is replaced by a fuel cell engine, and the emissions are simply water. Compared with electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles are more suitable for high-power, long-haul transportation.
It is not difficult to see from the publication of the Catalogue of Recommended Models for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2018 that the current commercialization mode of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is in the field of buses and logistics vehicles. Of the 12 batches, a total of 76 different fuel cell models were on the list. Among them, there are 56 fuel cell buses and 20 fuel cell vehicles.
Ouyang Minggao, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Tsinghua University, agrees with the international company's predictive analysis of the advantages of Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Hyundai and other companies in the fuel cell field. The cost advantage of lithium-ion battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is 2025. Battery vehicles have an advantage in long-haul heavy-duty large-scale traffic vehicles. In the final analysis, the lithium-ion battery power system is more suitable to replace the gasoline engine, and the fuel cell power system is more suitable to replace the diesel engine.
Ouyang Minggao said that from a global perspective, the industrialization process of fuel cell vehicles compared to pure electric vehicles is about 10 years later. It is expected that in the next 5 to 10 years, it is possible to reach the level equivalent to the current international status of lithium-ion batteries in China.
In 2018, the updated version of the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Technology Roadmap" forecasts China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle phased development goals: in 2020, the realization of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle scale demonstration operation and commercial vehicle industrialization. The demonstration vehicles reached 5,000 to 10,000 vehicles; in 2025, commercial vehicles were mainly used to promote the scale of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle technology. The cumulative application scale has reached 50,000 to 100,000 units; in 2030, large-scale large-scale promotion and application of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicles have been realized. The cumulative size of fuel cell vehicles has reached one million.

Subsidy policy is still the main driving force behind the development of the industry
At present, the fuel cell vehicle industry in North America, Europe, Japan and South Korea has entered the stage of commercialization, and China is still in the early stage of commercialization. Since 2016, the domestic hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry has developed rapidly, forming a cluster of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicles in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, East China, South China, Southwest China, Northwest China, Northeast China, and establishing a relatively mature industry. Supporting and commercial application systems. Industry experts believe that fuel cell vehicles are still in the early stages of industrialization, and subsidy policies and tax cuts have become key drivers. In foreign countries, Japan provides about 30,000 US dollars in financial subsidies for each hydrogen-fueled vehicle, which is lower than China's hydrogen fuel cell passenger car subsidy standard; while the United States has the least subsidy for fuel cell vehicles, and will gradually phase out subsidies for new energy vehicles. . Since 2018, provinces and municipalities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Wuhan, Chongqing and other provinces and municipalities have introduced local subsidies for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and proposed infrastructure construction such as hydrogen refueling stations; hydrogen and fuel cells have been established in Guangdong and Hubei. Automobile industry fund; Suzhou, Wuhan and other places to introduce special hydrogen energy industry planning policies; Shanghai, Datong, Jinan, Zhenjiang, Wuhan and other cities planning to build hydrogen energy industrial parks. It is understood that in 2018, the maximum subsidy for bicycles for fuel cell passenger cars, light passenger cars and trucks, large and medium-sized passenger cars and medium and heavy-duty trucks is 200,000 yuan, 300,000 vehicles, 500,000 vehicles.

Improve top-level design, achieve orderly development
Under the current boom in fuel cell vehicle development, some people are not optimistic about this market. A well-known entrepreneur who works for a domestic new energy auto company admits that pure electric vehicles are still the top priority of enterprise development. Although the company has two fuel cell buses in demonstration operation, it is currently worried about the development of fuel cell vehicles. . He believes that the size of fuel cell vehicles and the number of hydrogen refueling stations are far from supporting the real commercialization of the entire industry. It is planned to promote the construction of the fuel cell vehicle production and use infrastructure, and improve the upstream and downstream industry chain is the top priority of the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles.
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in 2018 were completed at 1,527 units. Among them, hydrogen fuel passenger cars sold 1,418 vehicles; hydrogen fuel cell trucks sold 109 vehicles. According to the data provided by the National Hydrogen Energy Standardization Technical Committee, as of 2018, there are 14 hydrogen refueling stations in operation nationwide, and about 50 other sites are in the construction or planning stage. Compared with the scale of the layout of hundreds of places in Japan and Europe, the development rate of hydrogenation stations in China is relatively slow.
Luo Junjie, deputy director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out the lack of development of China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry at a hydrogen energy forum last year. First, the industrialization capability of large-scale and high-reliability products has not yet formed. Second, the overall investment is insufficient, the technical level is not high, and the performance technology maturity of the reactor and system is still far from the international first-class level. Third, the manufacturing and use cost of the vehicle is still high, especially with traditional fuel vehicles. Compared with pure electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles do not have obvious advantages. Fourth, the construction of hydrogen energy infrastructure is relatively lagging. The marketization process of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is currently lagging behind pure electric vehicles. He said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work hard with relevant departments to crack down on the problems of industrialization and commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and vigorously promote the innovative development of China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell industries. It is necessary to improve the top-level design, promote the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in an orderly manner, and also pay attention to prevent the blind accumulation of low-level redundant construction problems for the purpose of subsidies in the past; build a supply system, and open up the fuel cell automobile industry chain and hydrogen energy supply chain. Strengthen technical research and promote breakthroughs in common technologies; select areas where the government has enthusiasm, hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry bases, and carry out pilot demonstrations of promotion and application.
 

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