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A few days ago, Dong Yang, executive vice president of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview with the media that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2019 will be introduced soon. Although there have been rumors of the introduction of new energy vehicle subsidy policies in 2019 from the beginning of the year, from December 2018 to January 2019, before and after the Spring Festival. Ok? It’s been in March now. However, people in the new energy vehicle and power battery industry are treated like “first love” for every rumor, even though they are “fudged” by “authoritative people”, “informants”, “industry figures” or “government department personnel”. Many times, however, after all, the financial subsidies for new energy vehicles are of great importance, and the official is not "officially declared", and everyone can only sniff out policy information by rumors.
This time, Dong Yang seems to be more witty. He did not give a specific date range, but said: Very soon! But even though it is "very soon", it is already in March. How long is this "very fast"? The financial subsidies for new energy vehicles are declining every year, and the policy issuance date is also one year later than one year. The 2017 financial subsidy was released on December 20, 2016; the 2018 financial subsidy policy was released on February 12, 2018; but this year has entered March and has not yet been released. Many car companies have stopped selling new cars for some time. They only wait for the new subsidy policy to be introduced and then adjust the price. Power battery companies also need to formulate appropriate power battery product strategies based on the product strategy after the car subsidy policy.
Everyone is waiting. For policy makers, it is also very anxious and a headache.
The financial subsidies for new energy vehicles will be completely withdrawn at the end of 2020, which means that the financial subsidies will depreciate this year will be higher than in previous years, and the version circulating between the parties will be between 30% and 60%. As we all know, the financial subsidy policy for new energy vehicles plays a decisive role in the development of China's new energy automobile industry. If this time is greatly subsided, whether the industry can continue to develop healthily and steadily will undoubtedly cause headaches for policy makers.
In early January of this year, Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, revealed that “the relevant departments of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are currently working hard to study and formulate the 2019 fiscal subsidy policy. The general principle is that after ensuring that all financial subsidies are withdrawn in 2021, the industry will not have a big Fluctuating, releasing the pressure brought by subsidies to retreat in stages, preventing the over-slope of the new energy vehicle market from becoming too big after a large decline in the market."
I am daring to speculate that the financial subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2019 have not yet been introduced in March. It may be that there is no relevant policy that is effective and can withstand the exit of subsidies, and the large-scale retreat may directly affect The healthy trend of the new energy vehicle market this year.
Battery China Network has conducted a detailed questionnaire survey based on several versions of the previous network transmission, and conducted a questionnaire analysis on the industry's expectations and views on the 2019 new energy vehicle financial subsidy policy.
In the questionnaire “How much do you think the financial subsidies are going to fall back in 2019?”, 58% think that the 2019 subsidy is 30%-40%. For the 50% or even 60% of the network's retreat, the support rate is less than 40%.
Similarly, for the questionnaire “How long is the transition period for the financial subsidy in 2019?”, it is considered that the transition period is 3 months or 86%. The importance of the transition period for car companies and power battery companies is self-evident, and it also has great significance for market adjustment. Judging from the current versions, the transition period should not be cancelled.
In the previously subsidized version of the 2019 subsidy, local subsidies will be cancelled and cause widespread concern in the industry. In an interview, Dong Yang revealed that local subsidies for new energy vehicles will no longer subsidize car companies and instead subsidize infrastructure, such as charging piles. In fact, this trend is reflected in the 2018 new energy vehicle financial subsidy notice. At that time, the subsidy policy proposed that “locals should continuously increase infrastructure construction and improve the environment for new energy vehicles. New energy will be used from 2018. The car local purchase subsidy funds gradually turned to support the construction and operation of charging infrastructure, the use and operation of new energy vehicles. It can be seen that the country has begun to guide local subsidies to the use of the link.
However, some people in the industry have raised doubts about this. "After the policy subsidy shifts to the field of charging infrastructure, there are also risks. It is likely to lead to a recurrence of incidents similar to those of vehicle companies in previous years. After the reversal of charging infrastructure and operations The supervision of local governments will be more difficult, which will easily lead to the 'great leap forward' of infrastructure construction, and it is more prone to fraudulent behavior."
In fact, the transformation of local financial subsidies into the infrastructure of new energy vehicles can solve the car buying concerns of consumers with difficulty in charging, and is more conducive to promoting the market-oriented promotion of new energy vehicles and new energy vehicles to ordinary consumers.
In fact, the financial subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2019 has not been released, and the author's guess may also be related to the formulation of technical indicators for subsidy policies. Statistics show that since 2018, new energy vehicle safety accidents have been on the rise, and new energy vehicles have been on fire. In the past few years, the subsidy policy has focused on the requirements for the mileage of new energy vehicles and the energy density of power batteries, and the annual increase rate is faster than the product technology research and development cycle, resulting in some car companies to obtain high subsidies, artificially shorten product verification. Cycles, security risks increase. Through the analysis of the causes of new energy vehicle accidents and the concern of all sectors of society on security issues, the formulation of policies needs to be more rational. It is no longer possible to emphasize the requirements for new energy vehicles' voyage mileage, but should return to focus on new energy. The comprehensive performance of car quality, safety, lightweight, energy consumption, cost, battery life and other incentives, and the corresponding subsidy policy also need to be re-examined and improved.
All of the above are still a prediction and analysis of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2019. Dong Yang said that the new subsidy policy will be introduced soon, but it is still a vague expression. We all hope that this policy can really meet with you soon. After all, it is already in March, and another spring of the development of new energy vehicles in China should come.