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Recently, China’s total coal consumption control plan and policy research project (referred to as the coal control research project) held an online press conference and released the latest report: "China’s Power Strategic Path Choice after the New Crown Epidemic: Coal Power or Electricity" written by North China Electric Power University New Infrastructure. Based on the analysis of the development path and industrial chain of traditional power infrastructure and new power infrastructure, the report comprehensively compares the impact of traditional power infrastructure and new power infrastructure on the economy and employment, power supply and energy security, corporate asset quality and operating risks , And proposed the development path of China's power industry in the post-epidemic era. Zhou Yuanbing, Dean of the Economic and Technological Research Institute of the Global Energy Interconnection Development Cooperation Organization, and Hu Zhaoguang, former Vice-President of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, commented on the content of the report and related topics.
The report pointed out that coal power and UHV lines mainly used to transport coal power belong to traditional infrastructure, emphasizing investment in hardware and pursuing quantitative benefits of scale. It is a supply-side economy of scale rather than the economy of interconnected supply and demand required in the new era. Development model. This kind of power development concept of "retransmission, light supply, no use" not only lags behind the requirements of the development of the times, but also cannot solve the current and long-term structural contradictions of "abundant power and tight power".
At present, the utilization efficiency of coal power and UHV transmission of clean energy is far less than expected. The average utilization hours of thermal power in 2019 were 4,293 hours, which is far lower than the standard utilization hours of 5300-5500 hours set by thermal power units. The channel utilization rate of the Zhefu line with a design capacity of 6.8-100.5 million kilowatts, the 1,000 kV southeast Shanxi-Nanyang-Jingmen line and the 9 million kV Ximeng-Shandong line in 2019 are only about 10%. In addition, although the construction of UHV lines is to transmit renewable energy power, in actual operation, a large amount of supporting coal power is required. Take the Gansu Jiuquan-Hunan ±800 kV power transmission project as an example. As my country’s first large-scale UHV DC project for large-scale transmission of new energy power, its designed transmission capacity is 8 million kilowatts, and the supporting coal power source is up to 6 million kilowatts.
The report believes that new infrastructure is a major project and infrastructure construction project launched by my country to accelerate national planning and construction, stabilize economic growth, and seek transformation and upgrading. Its focus is on long-term supply quality and efficiency. Therefore, new power infrastructure should highlight its structural adjustment and Economic transformation and upgrading function, strengthen the integration with 5G, Internet of Things, big data and other innovative technologies, and realize the green, safe, efficient and intelligent development of the power system. Based on this, new power infrastructure includes renewable energy represented by photovoltaics and wind power, energy storage technology, integrated energy services, power distribution grids, and digital grids. The new power infrastructure will give a higher level of demand-side response and power saving efficiency.
The report compares the industrial chain of traditional power infrastructure and new infrastructure, as well as the investment effects and output brought by them. The report pointed out that the preference for traditional power infrastructure investment in large state-owned enterprises rather than private enterprises is not sufficient to fully activate private investment and stimulate employment. In contrast, private enterprises have a higher market share in the new power infrastructure industry, which can fully stimulate private investment and create job opportunities. Investment in new power infrastructure is vital to my country's economic green recovery in the post-epidemic era. In addition, the continued vigorous deployment of traditional power infrastructure will result in continued decline in the utilization rate of coal-fired power plants and decline in efficiency, increasing the risk of stranding a large number of coal-fired power companies' assets, and is not conducive to energy transition and high-quality economic development. Under the new power infrastructure layout, the rapid development of renewable energy such as wind and solar will become dominant. Energy storage, demand-side management, gas power and flexible coal power after transformation will provide sufficient flexibility for the system, and the transformation of the distribution network And the construction of the digital grid guarantees the safe and efficient operation of the power system, so all parties will work together according to their own characteristics to improve overall efficiency and benefits.
The report believes that under the influence of the new crown epidemic, the power industry should firmly follow the road of new power infrastructure in order to promote the low-carbon transformation of the energy system, high-quality economic development, and achieve the "six stability" and "six guarantees". Under the new power infrastructure planning scenario, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will increase by 7.4% annually. By 2025, China’s total installed capacity of coal power will be controlled within 1.15 billion kilowatts, and non-fossil energy will account for the proportion of power generation. It will also increase by 10 percentage points from 2019.
The report pointed out that in the future, we should gradually withdraw from outdated coal-fired power plants and give priority to the development of renewable energy power. At the same time, through the construction of distribution networks and digital grids, we can achieve multi-energy complementarity and optimize the allocation of national energy resources. Coal power should give full play to its peak shaving and backup functions to maximize the consumption of new energy. We should vigorously develop the cross-regional consumption model of "integration of wind, water, fire and storage" and "integration of source, network, and load storage". At the same time, the long-distance transmission of coal power should be reduced as much as possible. The traditional "wind and fire bundling" UHV transmission mode requires the minimum utilization rate of UHV channels and the minimum annual transmission of new energy power.
Yang Fuqiang, a member of the core group of the coal control research project and senior consultant of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), pointed out that China’s goal of achieving the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and the long-term goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, coal power Accelerated exit is inevitable. In the future, the construction of a flexible, clean, safe and efficient power system centered on renewable energy should be accelerated to achieve a high degree of electrification of the end-use energy sector, and greatly improve the efficiency of electricity use. In the post-epidemic era, China should firmly choose the development path of new power infrastructure to help the green recovery of the economy.
Introduction to Coal Control Research Project
China is the world's largest coal production and consumption country. The coal-based energy structure has supported the rapid development of China's economy, but at the same time it has caused serious damage to the ecological environment. In order to cope with climate change, protect the environment and reduce air pollution, the International Environmental Protection Agency Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), as the project coordinator, cooperates with more than 20 influential institutions including government think tanks, scientific research institutes and industry associations. Co-launched the "China Coal Consumption Total Control Program and Policy Research" project (the "Coal Control Research Project") in October 2013 to provide policy recommendations for setting national coal consumption control targets, implementation roadmaps and action plans And operational measures to help China achieve multiple goals of resource conservation, environmental protection, climate change and sustainable economic development. The coal control research project has issued more than 60 reports so far, including "The Real Cost of Coal in 2012", "Executive Report on Continuously Promoting Electricity Reform and Increasing Renewable Energy Consumption" and "Scenario Study on China's Energy Emissions Under the Global 1.5℃ Target "Wait.
