On October 12, the China Automobile Association released data showing that in September of this year, my country's automobile production and sales completed 2.077 million and 2.067 million vehicles, down 17.9% and 19.6% year-on-year respectively. It is reported that the overall production and sales of automobiles declined in September, mainly due to insufficient chip supply. However, it is worth noting that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in September increased significantly. Data show that in September, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales completed 353,000 and 357,000, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times. In the first nine months of this year, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in my country has reached 2.157 million. According to the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in September, my country's new energy vehicle sales this year is expected to exceed 3 million.

In addition, focusing on the passenger car market, data from the Passenger Association show that the domestic penetration rate of new energy passenger cars in September has reached 21.1%; the penetration rate from January to September is 12.6%, which is an increase of 5.8% from January to September last year. More than doubled.

An industry insider introduced to Battery China that the production and sales of new energy vehicles have grown substantially, and the penetration rate has increased rapidly. The "chip shortage" has played a lot. car."

This point can also be glimpsed from the September sales data of car companies. Taking BYD as an example, its total vehicle sales in September were 78,787, of which 71,115 were new energy vehicles, accounting for 90.26%. In addition, other car companies also performed well in September new energy vehicle sales, such as Tesla (Shanghai) 56,006, SAIC-GM-Wuling 38,850, SAIC passenger car 21,552, GAC Agan 13,572, Great Wall Motor 12,770, Wei There were 10,628 cars and 10,412 cars from Xiaopeng.

Battery China believes that in the context of chip shortages, car companies mainly use chips in new energy vehicles. On the one hand, it is affected by the double-point policy; on the other hand, traditional fuel vehicles have limited profit margins, while intelligent networked new energy vehicles The market welcomes a higher degree; in addition, with the development of intelligent networked vehicles, the position of in-vehicle chips is becoming more and more important, and the cost and added value have also increased significantly. In addition, from the point of view of chip supply, it is also more inclined to use high value-added intelligent networked chips as the main output part.

In fact, under the influence of this background, the growth of new energy vehicles is also unexpected. As mentioned earlier, in September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales in my country has reached 17.27%, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has exceeded 20%, and it is expected to continue to grow in the future. In the next year or next year, the country’s goal of 20% of new energy vehicle sales in 2025 will be achieved ahead of schedule.

The attention and investment of car companies to new energy vehicles directly drove the increase in power battery production and demand.

Data show that in September this year, the output of power batteries in the Chinese market was about 23.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 168.9% and a month-on-month increase of 18.9%. In terms of battery types, the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries in September this year was 13.5GWh, accounting for 58.3% of the total output, an increase of 252.0% year-on-year; the output of ternary batteries was 9.6GWh, accounting for 41.6% of the total output, an increase of 102.6%.

In the first nine months of this year, my country's power battery output reached 134.7GWh, an increase of 195.0% year-on-year. Among them, the output of ternary battery was 62.8GWh, accounting for 46.6% of the total output, a year-on-year increase of 131.1%; the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 71.6GWh, accounting for 53.2% of the total output, a cumulative increase of 291.4% year-on-year.

In terms of the installed capacity of new energy vehicles, from January to September this year, the installed capacity of power batteries in my country has exceeded 90GWh.

Institutional analysis pointed out that the supply of automotive chips in the fourth quarter is expected to be better than that in the third quarter, but it is still in a state of shortage. At the same time, under the orderly electricity consumption policies in various regions, it is expected to increase the risk of automobile production. In this case, car companies are expected to increase Limited resources are tilted towards new energy vehicles that are encouraged by the state, higher profits, and accepted by consumers. It is expected that new energy vehicles will continue to grow throughout the fourth quarter.

Under this circumstance, the market's demand for power batteries will continue to grow. This year, the installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries in the Chinese market will be basically set to double compared with 2020.

Some institutions speculate that the global automotive "chip shortage" is not expected to be alleviated until 2023. At the same time, as electrification, connectivity, and intelligence have become the clear direction for the development of the automotive industry, the future challenges to chip technology and performance will also be major opportunities, which will also promote chip manufacturing companies to develop intelligent networked automotive chips. The focus of the field is that from the supply side, it will also accelerate the speed of vehicle electrification, thereby driving the rapid increase in the penetration rate of electrification.

Driven by the country’s series of support policies for new energy vehicles and the “dual-carbon” goal, the rapid development of new energy vehicles in recent years, superimposed on the impact of the “chip shortage”, the speed of vehicle electrification may exceed the general expectations of the industry.

In fact, from the perspective of the layout of power battery companies, since the second half of 2020, they include Ningde Times, LG New Energy, Fudi Battery, Yiwei Lithium, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Envision Power, Honeycomb Energy, AVIC Lithium, SKI Other domestic and foreign head battery companies are actively deploying power battery production capacity. The total planned production capacity of related companies has been around 2000GWh. It should be that the head battery companies have already known the demand for power batteries for the electrification of vehicles in the next few years. 2025 The probability that the global demand for power batteries for new energy vehicles will enter the TWh era will be advanced.