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Mobile WebSiteChinese cars have made great achievements in the past 40 years. In the past 40 years, automobile production has increased from 149,000 in 1978 to 29 million in 2017.
According to the latest data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, although the overall production and sales volume of automobiles has declined in October, the whole industry has entered a low-level operation area, but the production and sales of new energy sources have maintained rapid growth. From January to October this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 789,000 and 860,000 respectively, up 69.95% and 75.59% respectively over the same period of the previous year. In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 145,600 and 137,900, respectively, an increase of 58.13% and 51.01% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 116,600 and 111,200 respectively, and the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 29,300 and 26,600 respectively.
While the new energy vehicles are developing rapidly, there are inevitably many problems. For example, the common problems in the market: the cruising range of electric vehicles does not match the propaganda, there are many examples of manufacturers exaggerating publicity, and the cases of electric vehicles burning spontaneously are frequent. These problems have caused widespread controversy over new energy vehicles in the market. Both user groups and expert groups have begun to have different views on the technical route and development prospects of pure electric vehicles.
Will electric vehicles squeeze out of fuel vehicles in the future?
Under the common leadership of policies and markets, new energy vehicles have also exposed a lot of problems. At the same time, there are many problems between the pure electric vehicles and the fuel vehicles. The two are the competitions of life and death, or two technologies. Is the route developing in parallel?
In the keynote speech on the theme of “Car Power and Independent Innovation” in the 2018 SAECCE Academician Forum, Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the China Automotive Engineering Society, said, “At present, the development of the automobile industry still needs to respect objective laws. Technological revolution and industrial transformation, Bringing China's auto industry full of vitality and vitality, bringing infinite imagination. But while developing rapidly, we also see some impetuous phenomena. In violation of objective laws, we must arouse enough vigilance to make the industry healthier and more coordinated. Continuous development."
He issued three questions at the venue: What the industry needs to think about is “Do you want to be more energy-efficient?” “Do you want to be more diversified?” “Do you want to be smart?”
After asking questions, he gave his answer: "The answer is yes: diversity is in line with objective laws." Fu Yuwu believes that this is not unrelated to the blind investment of local governments. He said: "After the establishment of the pure electric vehicle route, there is a ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. This raises a question. Do we need to upgrade the technology of our engine, and do we need to upgrade the technology?" To this end, his answer is: The transformation and upgrading that the auto industry faces today needs to be upgraded in the transition and transformed in the upgrade. It is not just one aspect. Traditional cars must complement the short board, upgrade energy-saving and new energy vehicles must be grasped with both hands, both hands must be hard.
Party Secretary and Chairman of Shandong Heavy Industry Group, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Chairman of Weichai Group, and Dr. Tan Xuguang, Chairman of Weichai Power, also clearly stated: “For the future of commercial vehicles, traditional energy is still commercial. The mainstream power of the car, but facing the challenges of thermal efficiency improvement and zero emissions. In the future, the thermal efficiency of diesel engines will increase from the current 46% to 55%, approaching zero emissions; by 2020, Weichai will be the first to introduce thermal efficiency to more than 50%. Engine; pressure of high pressure common rail system is increased to 2500bar, and subsequent increase to 3000bar; natural gas engine thermal efficiency has increased from 39% to 42.5%, and strives to reach 45%. Although Tan Xuguang believes that the future new energy trend is irreversible, but larger Commercialization of the scope will take time."
For the pure electric vehicle route determined by the Chinese automobile industry, Dong Yang, the executive secretary of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, commented that “China’s automobile technology route is dominated by the government and supplemented by market competition.” He said that the Chinese government is manufacturing new energy vehicles. In the sales process, the construction of the battery and charging piles will be supported by the entire industry chain. The establishment of this route has promoted China's most passionate electric car boom.
Dong Yang believes that electric vehicles are catching up with the world's advanced level. Under the leadership of the Chinese government, China has formed the world's largest electric vehicle market, and has achieved many achievements. For example, the gap between the battery and the world's advanced level has been shortened to one year, and the safety standard for buses has been formulated by China. He believes that in the field of electric vehicle technology, we will reach the world advanced level in five years.
The journey of electric vehicles to squeeze out fuel vehicles will not be smooth. And this final choice, as Fu Yuwu said: It is not a good thing to hand over the market, choose from the market, and the government is too strong. Among them, safety, energy saving and environmental protection are the eternal themes of the development of the automobile industry. Among these three themes, safety is always in the first place. Traditional cars, electric cars, and smart network cars are even more so. Unlike other species, cars are tools for transportation and are closely related to human life. Various technical standards, laws, regulations, etc. are all based on these three major themes. And security has absolute veto power over any technical route.
The post-subsidy era How should new energy vehicles develop?
How to develop new energy vehicles in the future, at the annual meeting and exhibition of the China Automotive Engineering Society, the Chinese Academy of Sciences academician Ouyang Minggao gave his opinion. The competition between pure electric vehicles and traditional cars is a future trend. In order to achieve the same platform as traditional cars, Ouyang Minggao suggested that first, pure electric vehicles will further improve battery performance, and second, reduce power consumption by 100 kilometers. Third, there must be convenient charging facilities. Fourth, to ensure the safety of pure electric vehicles, safety is the lifeline for the next development. Battery, power consumption, and safety combined with infrastructure can go beyond a critical point of competition with traditional cars.
Ouyang Minggao believes that the new energy vehicle sector will have greater breakthroughs in the next few years, and the industry will undergo relatively large changes. China’s leading position in the field of new energy vehicles will play an increasingly important role. In his words, "The world is much faster than we think."
Director of the Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission and Shanghai New Energy Vehicle Promotion Director Liu Jianhua said that new energy vehicles can not only promote the automobile industry, but also improve the quality of the whole people and promote the construction of a social credit system. In addition, plug-in hybrids may be a long-lasting transition product. In the long run, plug-in hybrids have played a role in promoting our next-generation pure electric drive.
In response to the future technological development route of new energy vehicles, Dr. Fang Haifeng, chief expert of China Automotive Technology R&D Center and director of the New Energy Vehicle and Finance and Taxation Policy Research Office, said that the development of pure electric vehicles or hybrid power in the post-subsidy era belongs to the technology of new energy vehicles. The route is also a purely electric drive route. From a policy perspective, it should be equal support. Subsequent policies should ensure policy neutrality, forward-looking and systematic. In the future, new energy vehicles should consider how to create a better market environment and the risk of the industry facing a cliff. Whether or not to maintain development after the subsidy is withdrawn depends on the competitiveness of products and traditional fuel vehicles, especially prices.
The new energy automobile industry is developing rapidly and changes are coming. Mr. Yuan Chengqi, director and general manager of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Center, said that China is a mainstream consumer of new energy vehicle technology, but has not established a technological lead. The current technological innovation will break through the product definition and form a social ecological transformation of the automobile. The problem of China’s auto industry is still not strong. Moreover, the automotive industry environment is facing new changes, such as overcapacity, new technology challenges, traditional vehicle upgrade challenges, and capacity shift adjustments.
The impact of subsidies on the decline of enterprises is very large. He believes that in order to pursue profits, enterprises must solve the income impact caused by subsidies, and they need enterprises to open source and reduce expenditures. From the customer's point of view, how to take advantage of the new energy vehicle to solve the impact of the cost of subsidies, in fact, all car manufacturers need to think.
Mr. Yu Tian, General Manager of Toyota Motors R&D Center (China) Co., Ltd. Beijing Branch, said that the OEM could not decide which technology to choose is the best, from the user's point of view, because the user will make choices and decisions. . The OEM has to know and understand, and accordingly prepare to meet the needs of users and improve user satisfaction. Therefore, the OEM will continue to think about improving its key technologies and reducing the cost of ownership for the entire life cycle.
In the future, new energy vehicles are a major trend of development, but how to develop, how to compete with fuel vehicles in the market, also requires all parties in the entire automotive industry chain to cooperate, diligently repair internal strength, enhance product strength and brand competitiveness, just as Dong Yang said: completely disagree with the saying that overtaking or changing lanes overtaking. Cars are not a single item in sprint or long-distance running in sports competitions. The development of automobile technology is an "all-round sports project". Machinery, electronics and materials cannot be less; energy saving, safety and environmental protection are not bad.
